OpenAI holds a dominant 76.5% implied probability as the second-best AI agent lab by end of August, reflecting trader consensus on its sustained edge in large language model scale, agentic reasoning benchmarks, and developer ecosystem momentum. Labs such as Anthropic, Google, and Mistral sit at single-digit odds because they trail in demonstrated autonomous tool use and multi-step planning capabilities. Broader uncertainty around precise evaluation criteria keeps secondary names clustered near 50% or lower, underscoring how quickly competitive positioning can shift with new model releases or capability demos before the resolution date.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOpenAI 77%
SpaceXAI 17%
Moonshot 9%
DeepSeek 8.1%

OpenAI
77%

SpaceXAI
17%

Moonshot
9%

DeepSeek
8%

Anthropic
7%

ByteDance
7%

Z.ai
7%

6%

Alibaba
6%

Microsoft
5%

Xiaomi
5%

Mistral
4%

MiniMax
1%

Nvidia
1%

Baidu
1%

Meta
1%

Amazon
1%

Meituan
1%
OpenAI 77%
SpaceXAI 17%
Moonshot 9%
DeepSeek 8.1%

OpenAI
77%

SpaceXAI
17%

Moonshot
9%

DeepSeek
8%

Anthropic
7%

ByteDance
7%

Z.ai
7%

6%

Alibaba
6%

Microsoft
5%

Xiaomi
5%

Mistral
4%

MiniMax
1%

Nvidia
1%

Baidu
1%

Meta
1%

Amazon
1%

Meituan
1%
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Marché ouvert : Aug 12, 2026, 7:39 PM ET
Source de résolution
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agentResolver
0x69c47De9D...Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Source de résolution
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agentResolver
0x69c47De9D...OpenAI holds a dominant 76.5% implied probability as the second-best AI agent lab by end of August, reflecting trader consensus on its sustained edge in large language model scale, agentic reasoning benchmarks, and developer ecosystem momentum. Labs such as Anthropic, Google, and Mistral sit at single-digit odds because they trail in demonstrated autonomous tool use and multi-step planning capabilities. Broader uncertainty around precise evaluation criteria keeps secondary names clustered near 50% or lower, underscoring how quickly competitive positioning can shift with new model releases or capability demos before the resolution date.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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