The closely matched probabilities near 50% for numerous AI labs, with Anthropic and OpenAI leading at 39% and 36.5% respectively, reflect intense uncertainty in the race to build advanced AI agents. Competitive dynamics hinge on demonstrated capabilities in multi-step reasoning, tool integration, and reliable task execution across benchmarks, where recent model releases and agent frameworks from frontier labs have kept relative standings fluid. Factors like developer ecosystem adoption, safety alignments, and platform integrations further differentiate contenders, while lower odds for others signal barriers in scaling agentic systems. Upcoming capability demonstrations or benchmark results could quickly shift trader consensus before end-September resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAnthropic 40%
OpenAI 37%
SpaceXAI 17%
Moonshot 11.6%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 sept. 2026
Anthropic
40%
OpenAI
37%
SpaceXAI
17%
Moonshot
12%
Z.ai
5%
4%
Xiaomi
3%
Baidu
3%
MiniMax
3%
Meta
2%
Nvidia
2%
Mistral
2%
Microsoft
2%
ByteDance
1%
Alibaba
1%
Amazon
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Meituan
1%
Anthropic 40%
OpenAI 37%
SpaceXAI 17%
Moonshot 11.6%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 sept. 2026
Anthropic
$684 Vol.
40%
OpenAI
$219 Vol.
37%
SpaceXAI
$130 Vol.
17%
Moonshot
$150 Vol.
12%
Z.ai
$100 Vol.
5%
$125 Vol.
4%
Xiaomi
$1,185 Vol.
3%
Baidu
$100 Vol.
3%
MiniMax
$100 Vol.
3%
Meta
$120 Vol.
2%
Nvidia
$124 Vol.
2%
Mistral
$307 Vol.
2%
Microsoft
$110 Vol.
2%
ByteDance
$61 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$100 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$100 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$100 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$100 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The closely matched probabilities near 50% for numerous AI labs, with Anthropic and OpenAI leading at 39% and 36.5% respectively, reflect intense uncertainty in the race to build advanced AI agents. Competitive dynamics hinge on demonstrated capabilities in multi-step reasoning, tool integration, and reliable task execution across benchmarks, where recent model releases and agent frameworks from frontier labs have kept relative standings fluid. Factors like developer ecosystem adoption, safety alignments, and platform integrations further differentiate contenders, while lower odds for others signal barriers in scaling agentic systems. Upcoming capability demonstrations or benchmark results could quickly shift trader consensus before end-September resolution.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Marché ouvert : Aug 12, 2026, 7:40 PM ET
Volume
$3,915Date de fin
30 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 12, 2026, 7:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The closely matched probabilities near 50% for numerous AI labs, with Anthropic and OpenAI leading at 39% and 36.5% respectively, reflect intense uncertainty in the race to build advanced AI agents. Competitive dynamics hinge on demonstrated capabilities in multi-step reasoning, tool integration, and reliable task execution across benchmarks, where recent model releases and agent frameworks from frontier labs have kept relative standings fluid. Factors like developer ecosystem adoption, safety alignments, and platform integrations further differentiate contenders, while lower odds for others signal barriers in scaling agentic systems. Upcoming capability demonstrations or benchmark results could quickly shift trader consensus before end-September resolution.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$3,915Date de fin
30 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 12, 2026, 7:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched probabilities near 50% for numerous AI labs, with Anthropic and OpenAI leading at 39% and 36.5% respectively, reflect intense uncertainty in the race to build advanced AI agents. Competitive dynamics hinge on demonstrated capabilities in multi-step reasoning, tool integration, and reliable task execution across benchmarks, where recent model releases and agent frameworks from frontier labs have kept relative standings fluid. Factors like developer ecosystem adoption, safety alignments, and platform integrations further differentiate contenders, while lower odds for others signal barriers in scaling agentic systems. Upcoming capability demonstrations or benchmark results could quickly shift trader consensus before end-September resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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