Recent inflation data have driven the 52.5% market-implied probability of a 25 basis point SARB repo rate hike at the July 23 meeting. Headline CPI accelerated to 4.5% in May from 4.0% in April, fueled by transportation costs tied to Middle East developments and electricity tariff increases, pushing readings toward the upper end of the 2–4% target band. The central bank raised rates 25 basis points to 7% in May—its first hike since 2023—citing elevated upside risks and revised 2026 inflation forecasts to 4.4%. With core measures also firming and the MPC emphasizing second-round effects, traders price in further tightening to anchor expectations, while the 29% odds of no change reflect tempered growth projections and the possibility that incoming June data could moderate the pace.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourSouth African Reserve Bank decision in July?
South African Reserve Bank decision in July?
25 bps hike 86%
No Change 11%
50+ bps hike 2.7%
25 bps cut <1%
$12,859 Vol.
$12,859 Vol.
23 juil. 2026
50+ bps cut
<1%
25 bps cut
<1%
No Change
11%
25 bps hike
86%
50+ bps hike
3%
25 bps hike 86%
No Change 11%
50+ bps hike 2.7%
25 bps cut <1%
$12,859 Vol.
$12,859 Vol.
23 juil. 2026
50+ bps cut
$395 Vol.
<1%
25 bps cut
$397 Vol.
<1%
No Change
$3,818 Vol.
11%
25 bps hike
$7,610 Vol.
86%
50+ bps hike
$639 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the repo rate resulting from the July 2026 meeting of the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 23, 2026, as listed on the official South African Reserve Bank calendar (https://www.resbank.co.za/en/home/calendar).
This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee resulting from its July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Hike" or "Cut" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Recent inflation data have driven the 52.5% market-implied probability of a 25 basis point SARB repo rate hike at the July 23 meeting. Headline CPI accelerated to 4.5% in May from 4.0% in April, fueled by transportation costs tied to Middle East developments and electricity tariff increases, pushing readings toward the upper end of the 2–4% target band. The central bank raised rates 25 basis points to 7% in May—its first hike since 2023—citing elevated upside risks and revised 2026 inflation forecasts to 4.4%. With core measures also firming and the MPC emphasizing second-round effects, traders price in further tightening to anchor expectations, while the 29% odds of no change reflect tempered growth projections and the possibility that incoming June data could moderate the pace.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the repo rate resulting from the July 2026 meeting of the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 23, 2026, as listed on the official South African Reserve Bank calendar (https://www.resbank.co.za/en/home/calendar).
This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee resulting from its July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Hike" or "Cut" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 23, 2026, as listed on the official South African Reserve Bank calendar (https://www.resbank.co.za/en/home/calendar).
This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee resulting from its July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Hike" or "Cut" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : May 28, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Volume
$12,859Date de fin
23 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
May 28, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the repo rate resulting from the July 2026 meeting of the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 23, 2026, as listed on the official South African Reserve Bank calendar (https://www.resbank.co.za/en/home/calendar).
This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee resulting from its July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Hike" or "Cut" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Recent inflation data have driven the 52.5% market-implied probability of a 25 basis point SARB repo rate hike at the July 23 meeting. Headline CPI accelerated to 4.5% in May from 4.0% in April, fueled by transportation costs tied to Middle East developments and electricity tariff increases, pushing readings toward the upper end of the 2–4% target band. The central bank raised rates 25 basis points to 7% in May—its first hike since 2023—citing elevated upside risks and revised 2026 inflation forecasts to 4.4%. With core measures also firming and the MPC emphasizing second-round effects, traders price in further tightening to anchor expectations, while the 29% odds of no change reflect tempered growth projections and the possibility that incoming June data could moderate the pace.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the repo rate resulting from the July 2026 meeting of the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 23, 2026, as listed on the official South African Reserve Bank calendar (https://www.resbank.co.za/en/home/calendar).
This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee resulting from its July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Hike" or "Cut" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 23, 2026, as listed on the official South African Reserve Bank calendar (https://www.resbank.co.za/en/home/calendar).
This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee resulting from its July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Hike" or "Cut" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Volume
$12,859Date de fin
23 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
May 28, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent inflation data have driven the 52.5% market-implied probability of a 25 basis point SARB repo rate hike at the July 23 meeting. Headline CPI accelerated to 4.5% in May from 4.0% in April, fueled by transportation costs tied to Middle East developments and electricity tariff increases, pushing readings toward the upper end of the 2–4% target band. The central bank raised rates 25 basis points to 7% in May—its first hike since 2023—citing elevated upside risks and revised 2026 inflation forecasts to 4.4%. With core measures also firming and the MPC emphasizing second-round effects, traders price in further tightening to anchor expectations, while the 29% odds of no change reflect tempered growth projections and the possibility that incoming June data could moderate the pace.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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