Bipartisan Senate negotiations led by Majority Leader John Thune, Amy Klobuchar, and Ted Cruz have advanced draft language for an AI safety measure that would impose a duty of care on frontier developers, require incident reporting to the Commerce Department, and allow federal intervention on catastrophic risks such as biological or cyber threats. Recent insider warnings and model disclosures have intensified discussions, yet partisan gaps on enforcement scope, preemption of state laws, and verification mechanisms persist. With Congress facing a compressed calendar ahead of the November midterms, limited session days remaining, and no bill cleared for floor consideration, traders assign an 82.5% implied probability that no qualifying AI safety legislation will be enacted before 2027.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLes États-Unis adoptent-ils un projet de loi sur la sécurité de l'IA avant 2027 ?
Les États-Unis adoptent-ils un projet de loi sur la sécurité de l'IA avant 2027 ?
Oui
18% chance
$121,627 Vol.
$121,627 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
18% chance
$121,627 Vol.
$121,627 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Bipartisan Senate negotiations led by Majority Leader John Thune, Amy Klobuchar, and Ted Cruz have advanced draft language for an AI safety measure that would impose a duty of care on frontier developers, require incident reporting to the Commerce Department, and allow federal intervention on catastrophic risks such as biological or cyber threats. Recent insider warnings and model disclosures have intensified discussions, yet partisan gaps on enforcement scope, preemption of state laws, and verification mechanisms persist. With Congress facing a compressed calendar ahead of the November midterms, limited session days remaining, and no bill cleared for floor consideration, traders assign an 82.5% implied probability that no qualifying AI safety legislation will be enacted before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ET
Volume
$121,627Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Bipartisan Senate negotiations led by Majority Leader John Thune, Amy Klobuchar, and Ted Cruz have advanced draft language for an AI safety measure that would impose a duty of care on frontier developers, require incident reporting to the Commerce Department, and allow federal intervention on catastrophic risks such as biological or cyber threats. Recent insider warnings and model disclosures have intensified discussions, yet partisan gaps on enforcement scope, preemption of state laws, and verification mechanisms persist. With Congress facing a compressed calendar ahead of the November midterms, limited session days remaining, and no bill cleared for floor consideration, traders assign an 82.5% implied probability that no qualifying AI safety legislation will be enacted before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$122,881Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Bipartisan Senate negotiations led by Majority Leader John Thune, Amy Klobuchar, and Ted Cruz have advanced draft language for an AI safety measure that would impose a duty of care on frontier developers, require incident reporting to the Commerce Department, and allow federal intervention on catastrophic risks such as biological or cyber threats. Recent insider warnings and model disclosures have intensified discussions, yet partisan gaps on enforcement scope, preemption of state laws, and verification mechanisms persist. With Congress facing a compressed calendar ahead of the November midterms, limited session days remaining, and no bill cleared for floor consideration, traders assign an 82.5% implied probability that no qualifying AI safety legislation will be enacted before 2027.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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