Recent rainfall across southern Germany and the Alpine headwaters has begun lifting Rhine gauge readings from mid-August record lows, with Kaub rising from near 10 cm to around 70 cm and similar modest gains at other stations. Traders appear to price in additional precipitation and typical late-summer inflows as sufficient to restore normal navigation depths within days, producing near-certain consensus on a return before September 1. Persistent low-water constraints still limit fully loaded barges and force partial loads or modal shifts, yet the market reflects expectations of quick stabilization. Extended dry weather, below-average upstream runoff, or delayed seasonal rains could realistically push recovery into mid-September or later.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourQuand le Rhin reviendra-t-il à des niveaux normaux ?
Avant le 1er septembre 2026 100.0%
1er - 14 septembre 2026 <1%
15 - 30 septembre 2026 <1%
1er - 31 octobre 2026 <1%
$114,890 Vol.
$114,890 Vol.
Avant le 1er septembre 2026
Oui
1er - 14 septembre 2026
Non
15 - 30 septembre 2026
Non
1er - 31 octobre 2026
Non
Ne revient pas d'ici le 1er novembre 2026
Non
Avant le 1er septembre 2026 100.0%
1er - 14 septembre 2026 <1%
15 - 30 septembre 2026 <1%
1er - 31 octobre 2026 <1%
$114,890 Vol.
$114,890 Vol.
Avant le 1er septembre 2026
Oui
1er - 14 septembre 2026
Non
15 - 30 septembre 2026
Non
1er - 31 octobre 2026
Non
Ne revient pas d'ici le 1er novembre 2026
Non
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 77 centimeters is recorded at the Kaub gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 77 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100). If PegelOnline is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Aug 11, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Source de résolution
https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100Résolveur
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Oui
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Oui
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 77 centimeters is recorded at the Kaub gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 77 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100). If PegelOnline is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Source de résolution
https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100Résolveur
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Oui
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Oui
Recent rainfall across southern Germany and the Alpine headwaters has begun lifting Rhine gauge readings from mid-August record lows, with Kaub rising from near 10 cm to around 70 cm and similar modest gains at other stations. Traders appear to price in additional precipitation and typical late-summer inflows as sufficient to restore normal navigation depths within days, producing near-certain consensus on a return before September 1. Persistent low-water constraints still limit fully loaded barges and force partial loads or modal shifts, yet the market reflects expectations of quick stabilization. Extended dry weather, below-average upstream runoff, or delayed seasonal rains could realistically push recovery into mid-September or later.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour


Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes