**Recent forecasts for Shanghai on September 21, 2026, center on a daytime maximum of 29–30 °C under partly cloudy to mostly clear skies with light northerly winds and minimal precipitation risk.** Multiple global and regional models, including outputs aligned with GFS and local Chinese Meteorological Administration guidance, project highs in this narrow range, consistent with the observed pattern of 28–30 °C over the preceding days amid seasonal cooling from peak summer. **Key drivers include the influence of a stable high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence and clear conditions, combined with northeasterly flow that limits moisture and extreme heating.** September climatology for Shanghai shows typical maxima near 27–29 °C, so current guidance sits slightly above average but within normal variability for late-month transitions. Low dew points and modest wind speeds support efficient daytime warming without significant cloud cover or rain to suppress temperatures. **Model consensus remains tight for the 48-hour window, with only modest spread in maximum values that explains the market concentration on 28–30 °C outcomes.** Traders appear to be weighting the most probable forecast runs and historical analogs, while assigning low probability to outliers above 31 °C or below 27 °C given the stable synoptic setup. Updated model runs and official Shanghai forecasts issued closer to the date will be the primary catalysts for any shifts in implied probabilities.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Shanghai le 21 septembre ?
La température la plus élevée à Shanghai le 21 septembre ?
29°C 47%
28°C 25%
30°C 19%
27°C 13%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
21 sept. 2026
26°C ou moins
5%
27°C
13%
28°C
29%
29°C
47%
30°C
19%
31°C
10%
32°C
3%
33°C
1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C ou plus
<1%
29°C 47%
28°C 25%
30°C 19%
27°C 13%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
21 sept. 2026
26°C ou moins
$0 Vol.
5%
27°C
$10 Vol.
13%
28°C
$56 Vol.
29%
29°C
$59 Vol.
47%
30°C
$0 Vol.
19%
31°C
$0 Vol.
10%
32°C
$0 Vol.
3%
33°C
$10 Vol.
1%
34°C
$10 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$10 Vol.
<1%
36°C ou plus
$50 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecasts for Shanghai on September 21, 2026, center on a daytime maximum of 29–30 °C under partly cloudy to mostly clear skies with light northerly winds and minimal precipitation risk.** Multiple global and regional models, including outputs aligned with GFS and local Chinese Meteorological Administration guidance, project highs in this narrow range, consistent with the observed pattern of 28–30 °C over the preceding days amid seasonal cooling from peak summer.
**Key drivers include the influence of a stable high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence and clear conditions, combined with northeasterly flow that limits moisture and extreme heating.** September climatology for Shanghai shows typical maxima near 27–29 °C, so current guidance sits slightly above average but within normal variability for late-month transitions. Low dew points and modest wind speeds support efficient daytime warming without significant cloud cover or rain to suppress temperatures.
**Model consensus remains tight for the 48-hour window, with only modest spread in maximum values that explains the market concentration on 28–30 °C outcomes.** Traders appear to be weighting the most probable forecast runs and historical analogs, while assigning low probability to outliers above 31 °C or below 27 °C given the stable synoptic setup. Updated model runs and official Shanghai forecasts issued closer to the date will be the primary catalysts for any shifts in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Sep 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$197Date de fin
21 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecasts for Shanghai on September 21, 2026, center on a daytime maximum of 29–30 °C under partly cloudy to mostly clear skies with light northerly winds and minimal precipitation risk.** Multiple global and regional models, including outputs aligned with GFS and local Chinese Meteorological Administration guidance, project highs in this narrow range, consistent with the observed pattern of 28–30 °C over the preceding days amid seasonal cooling from peak summer.
**Key drivers include the influence of a stable high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence and clear conditions, combined with northeasterly flow that limits moisture and extreme heating.** September climatology for Shanghai shows typical maxima near 27–29 °C, so current guidance sits slightly above average but within normal variability for late-month transitions. Low dew points and modest wind speeds support efficient daytime warming without significant cloud cover or rain to suppress temperatures.
**Model consensus remains tight for the 48-hour window, with only modest spread in maximum values that explains the market concentration on 28–30 °C outcomes.** Traders appear to be weighting the most probable forecast runs and historical analogs, while assigning low probability to outliers above 31 °C or below 27 °C given the stable synoptic setup. Updated model runs and official Shanghai forecasts issued closer to the date will be the primary catalysts for any shifts in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$197Date de fin
21 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...**Recent forecasts for Shanghai on September 21, 2026, center on a daytime maximum of 29–30 °C under partly cloudy to mostly clear skies with light northerly winds and minimal precipitation risk.** Multiple global and regional models, including outputs aligned with GFS and local Chinese Meteorological Administration guidance, project highs in this narrow range, consistent with the observed pattern of 28–30 °C over the preceding days amid seasonal cooling from peak summer. **Key drivers include the influence of a stable high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence and clear conditions, combined with northeasterly flow that limits moisture and extreme heating.** September climatology for Shanghai shows typical maxima near 27–29 °C, so current guidance sits slightly above average but within normal variability for late-month transitions. Low dew points and modest wind speeds support efficient daytime warming without significant cloud cover or rain to suppress temperatures. **Model consensus remains tight for the 48-hour window, with only modest spread in maximum values that explains the market concentration on 28–30 °C outcomes.** Traders appear to be weighting the most probable forecast runs and historical analogs, while assigning low probability to outliers above 31 °C or below 27 °C given the stable synoptic setup. Updated model runs and official Shanghai forecasts issued closer to the date will be the primary catalysts for any shifts in implied probabilities.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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