Recent El Niño development and persistent anthropogenic warming have positioned 2026 for a likely second-hottest year on record, aligning with the market's leading 57.5% implied probability for rank 2. Year-to-date global temperature anomalies through April remain elevated at roughly 1.15–1.18°C above the 20th-century average, though still trailing 2024 and 2025 in most datasets from NOAA and NASA. Climate models from Carbon Brief and Environment and Climate Change Canada project a full-year anomaly near 1.47°C above pre-industrial levels, driven by strengthening equatorial Pacific warming that typically peaks late in the year. This leaves a realistic path for 2026 to finish second but only a modest chance of overtaking 2024's record, consistent with the 35.5% odds for rank 1. Updated seasonal forecasts and June–August data releases will further refine these probabilities.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOù 2026 se classera-t-elle parmi les années les plus chaudes jamais enregistrées ?
Où 2026 se classera-t-elle parmi les années les plus chaudes jamais enregistrées ?
2 57%
1 36%
4 2.8%
6 ou moins 2.3%
$2,821,277 Vol.
$2,821,277 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
1
36%
2
57%
3
2%
4
3%
5
1%
6 ou moins
2%
2 57%
1 36%
4 2.8%
6 ou moins 2.3%
$2,821,277 Vol.
$2,821,277 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
1
$453,741 Vol.
36%
2
$325,824 Vol.
57%
3
$428,143 Vol.
2%
4
$416,574 Vol.
3%
5
$732,047 Vol.
1%
6 ou moins
$464,948 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Recent El Niño development and persistent anthropogenic warming have positioned 2026 for a likely second-hottest year on record, aligning with the market's leading 57.5% implied probability for rank 2. Year-to-date global temperature anomalies through April remain elevated at roughly 1.15–1.18°C above the 20th-century average, though still trailing 2024 and 2025 in most datasets from NOAA and NASA. Climate models from Carbon Brief and Environment and Climate Change Canada project a full-year anomaly near 1.47°C above pre-industrial levels, driven by strengthening equatorial Pacific warming that typically peaks late in the year. This leaves a realistic path for 2026 to finish second but only a modest chance of overtaking 2024's record, consistent with the 35.5% odds for rank 1. Updated seasonal forecasts and June–August data releases will further refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ET
Volume
$2,821,277Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Recent El Niño development and persistent anthropogenic warming have positioned 2026 for a likely second-hottest year on record, aligning with the market's leading 57.5% implied probability for rank 2. Year-to-date global temperature anomalies through April remain elevated at roughly 1.15–1.18°C above the 20th-century average, though still trailing 2024 and 2025 in most datasets from NOAA and NASA. Climate models from Carbon Brief and Environment and Climate Change Canada project a full-year anomaly near 1.47°C above pre-industrial levels, driven by strengthening equatorial Pacific warming that typically peaks late in the year. This leaves a realistic path for 2026 to finish second but only a modest chance of overtaking 2024's record, consistent with the 35.5% odds for rank 1. Updated seasonal forecasts and June–August data releases will further refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,821,277Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent El Niño development and persistent anthropogenic warming have positioned 2026 for a likely second-hottest year on record, aligning with the market's leading 57.5% implied probability for rank 2. Year-to-date global temperature anomalies through April remain elevated at roughly 1.15–1.18°C above the 20th-century average, though still trailing 2024 and 2025 in most datasets from NOAA and NASA. Climate models from Carbon Brief and Environment and Climate Change Canada project a full-year anomaly near 1.47°C above pre-industrial levels, driven by strengthening equatorial Pacific warming that typically peaks late in the year. This leaves a realistic path for 2026 to finish second but only a modest chance of overtaking 2024's record, consistent with the 35.5% odds for rank 1. Updated seasonal forecasts and June–August data releases will further refine these probabilities.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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