Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7 and related previews have driven the 68.8% implied probability by posting leading scores on coding, agentic, and reasoning benchmarks such as SWE-bench and GPQA Diamond in April releases, with no frontier-scale challenger emerging through mid-May. Google sits at 25.5% largely on Gemini 3.1 Pro's consistent strength in accuracy and multimodal tasks, while OpenAI's 5.5% reflects GPT-5.5's solid intelligence index gains offset by recent focus on efficiency variants rather than raw capability leaps. xAI and Meta trail at under 1% amid narrower specialization and slower benchmark momentum. Traders are watching for any late-May or early-June model updates that could alter relative positioning before the June 30 resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAnthropic 72.0%
Google 21%
OpenAI 5%
xAI 1.0%
$6,000,659 Vol.
$6,000,659 Vol.

Anthropic
72%

21%

OpenAI
5%

xAI
1%

Meta
1%

DeepSeek
<1%

Amazon
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Microsoft
<1%

ByteDance
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Baidu
<1%
Anthropic 72.0%
Google 21%
OpenAI 5%
xAI 1.0%
$6,000,659 Vol.
$6,000,659 Vol.

Anthropic
72%

21%

OpenAI
5%

xAI
1%

Meta
1%

DeepSeek
<1%

Amazon
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Microsoft
<1%

ByteDance
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Baidu
<1%
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Marché ouvert : Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7 and related previews have driven the 68.8% implied probability by posting leading scores on coding, agentic, and reasoning benchmarks such as SWE-bench and GPQA Diamond in April releases, with no frontier-scale challenger emerging through mid-May. Google sits at 25.5% largely on Gemini 3.1 Pro's consistent strength in accuracy and multimodal tasks, while OpenAI's 5.5% reflects GPT-5.5's solid intelligence index gains offset by recent focus on efficiency variants rather than raw capability leaps. xAI and Meta trail at under 1% amid narrower specialization and slower benchmark momentum. Traders are watching for any late-May or early-June model updates that could alter relative positioning before the June 30 resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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