Anthropic’s commanding 72.5% market-implied probability stems from its September 2026 disclosures on scaling internal AI agents—now numbering around 30,000 across research and engineering platforms—along with Claude leading 26% of AI R&D tasks end-to-end under human oversight. These metrics, paired with the early-September release of open-source Claude Commerce Agents blueprints and Project Fetch Phase 2 robotic demonstrations, underscore trader consensus on Anthropic’s edge in reliable, long-horizon tool use and safety guardrails. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra has gained enterprise traction, yet lags in developer benchmarks for agentic coding and multi-step autonomy, while Google, Meta, and others trail further behind on comparable production agent capabilities. With the November resolution window approaching, any new model launches or benchmark shifts could still alter positioning.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAnthropic 73%
OpenAI 16%
Google 7.1%
Alibaba 4.2%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 nov. 2026
Anthropic
73%
OpenAI
16%
7%
Alibaba
4%
Z.ai
4%
Meta
2%
SpaceXAI
1%
DeepSeek
1%
MiniMax
1%
Nvidia
1%
Moonshot
1%
Xiaomi
1%
ByteDance
1%
Baidu
1%
Amazon
1%
Mistral
1%
Meituan
1%
Microsoft
1%
Tencent
1%
Anthropic 73%
OpenAI 16%
Google 7.1%
Alibaba 4.2%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 nov. 2026
Anthropic
$727 Vol.
73%
OpenAI
$372 Vol.
16%
$250 Vol.
7%
Alibaba
$200 Vol.
4%
Z.ai
$251 Vol.
4%
Meta
$268 Vol.
2%
SpaceXAI
$215 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$188 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$188 Vol.
1%
Nvidia
$188 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$208 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$224 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$178 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$188 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$188 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$188 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$188 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$188 Vol.
1%
Tencent
$190 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s commanding 72.5% market-implied probability stems from its September 2026 disclosures on scaling internal AI agents—now numbering around 30,000 across research and engineering platforms—along with Claude leading 26% of AI R&D tasks end-to-end under human oversight. These metrics, paired with the early-September release of open-source Claude Commerce Agents blueprints and Project Fetch Phase 2 robotic demonstrations, underscore trader consensus on Anthropic’s edge in reliable, long-horizon tool use and safety guardrails. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra has gained enterprise traction, yet lags in developer benchmarks for agentic coding and multi-step autonomy, while Google, Meta, and others trail further behind on comparable production agent capabilities. With the November resolution window approaching, any new model launches or benchmark shifts could still alter positioning.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Marché ouvert : Sep 17, 2026, 8:02 PM ET
Volume
$4,590Date de fin
1 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 17, 2026, 8:02 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s commanding 72.5% market-implied probability stems from its September 2026 disclosures on scaling internal AI agents—now numbering around 30,000 across research and engineering platforms—along with Claude leading 26% of AI R&D tasks end-to-end under human oversight. These metrics, paired with the early-September release of open-source Claude Commerce Agents blueprints and Project Fetch Phase 2 robotic demonstrations, underscore trader consensus on Anthropic’s edge in reliable, long-horizon tool use and safety guardrails. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra has gained enterprise traction, yet lags in developer benchmarks for agentic coding and multi-step autonomy, while Google, Meta, and others trail further behind on comparable production agent capabilities. With the November resolution window approaching, any new model launches or benchmark shifts could still alter positioning.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$4,590Date de fin
1 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 17, 2026, 8:02 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s commanding 72.5% market-implied probability stems from its September 2026 disclosures on scaling internal AI agents—now numbering around 30,000 across research and engineering platforms—along with Claude leading 26% of AI R&D tasks end-to-end under human oversight. These metrics, paired with the early-September release of open-source Claude Commerce Agents blueprints and Project Fetch Phase 2 robotic demonstrations, underscore trader consensus on Anthropic’s edge in reliable, long-horizon tool use and safety guardrails. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra has gained enterprise traction, yet lags in developer benchmarks for agentic coding and multi-step autonomy, while Google, Meta, and others trail further behind on comparable production agent capabilities. With the November resolution window approaching, any new model launches or benchmark shifts could still alter positioning.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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