Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz and Iran-related supply risks, have kept Brent crude near $85 per barrel, supporting U.S. retail gasoline prices at a national average of $4.066 as of August 16 per AAA data. This elevated level reflects asymmetric pass-through dynamics where pump prices rise quickly with crude but adjust more slowly downward, alongside tight inventories and strong refinery utilization. Trader sentiment on near-term thresholds by August 31 incorporates seasonal demand fade, upcoming EIA weekly inventory releases, and potential de-escalation signals that could pressure oil benchmarks lower. Market-implied odds embed these probabilities amid uncertainty over policy responses and global demand trends.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourNOUVEAU
31 août 2026
↑ 5,00 $
5%
↑ 4,75 $
2%
↑ 4,50 $
12%
↑ 4,25 $
20%
↓ 3,90 $
21%
↓ 3,70 $
12%
↓ 3,50 $
5%
↓ 3,25 $
3%
↓ 3,00 $
9%
↓ 2,50 $
2%
$8,825 Vol.
↑ 5,00 $
$2,363 Vol.
5%
↑ 4,75 $
$297 Vol.
2%
↑ 4,50 $
$2,105 Vol.
12%
↑ 4,25 $
$1,585 Vol.
20%
↓ 3,90 $
$487 Vol.
21%
↓ 3,70 $
$1,502 Vol.
12%
↓ 3,50 $
$155 Vol.
5%
↓ 3,25 $
$18 Vol.
3%
↓ 3,00 $
$79 Vol.
9%
↓ 2,50 $
$235 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and August 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and August 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz and Iran-related supply risks, have kept Brent crude near $85 per barrel, supporting U.S. retail gasoline prices at a national average of $4.066 as of August 16 per AAA data. This elevated level reflects asymmetric pass-through dynamics where pump prices rise quickly with crude but adjust more slowly downward, alongside tight inventories and strong refinery utilization. Trader sentiment on near-term thresholds by August 31 incorporates seasonal demand fade, upcoming EIA weekly inventory releases, and potential de-escalation signals that could pressure oil benchmarks lower. Market-implied odds embed these probabilities amid uncertainty over policy responses and global demand trends.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and August 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
Marché ouvert : Jul 29, 2026, 3:23 PM ET
Volume
$8,825Date de fin
31 août 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 29, 2026, 3:23 PM ETSource de résolution
https://gasprices.aaa.com/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and August 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and August 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz and Iran-related supply risks, have kept Brent crude near $85 per barrel, supporting U.S. retail gasoline prices at a national average of $4.066 as of August 16 per AAA data. This elevated level reflects asymmetric pass-through dynamics where pump prices rise quickly with crude but adjust more slowly downward, alongside tight inventories and strong refinery utilization. Trader sentiment on near-term thresholds by August 31 incorporates seasonal demand fade, upcoming EIA weekly inventory releases, and potential de-escalation signals that could pressure oil benchmarks lower. Market-implied odds embed these probabilities amid uncertainty over policy responses and global demand trends.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and August 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
Volume
$8,825Date de fin
31 août 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 29, 2026, 3:23 PM ETSource de résolution
https://gasprices.aaa.com/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz and Iran-related supply risks, have kept Brent crude near $85 per barrel, supporting U.S. retail gasoline prices at a national average of $4.066 as of August 16 per AAA data. This elevated level reflects asymmetric pass-through dynamics where pump prices rise quickly with crude but adjust more slowly downward, alongside tight inventories and strong refinery utilization. Trader sentiment on near-term thresholds by August 31 incorporates seasonal demand fade, upcoming EIA weekly inventory releases, and potential de-escalation signals that could pressure oil benchmarks lower. Market-implied odds embed these probabilities amid uncertainty over policy responses and global demand trends.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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