Iran's Islamic Republic maintains a legal system grounded in Shia jurisprudence, under which marriage is defined exclusively as a union between a man and a woman, while same-sex relations are criminalized with penalties up to execution. The Supreme Leader, Guardian Council, and parliament exercise oversight to ensure all legislation conforms to Sharia, and no official proposals or clerical shifts toward recognition of same-sex unions have emerged. Enforcement continues through the penal code, with documented arrests and sentences reinforcing policy continuity. Traders assign overwhelming probability against legalization because these structural and religious constraints show no sign of near-term alteration, though a fundamental change in governance or reinterpretation by senior clerics could theoretically reopen the issue.