Rep. Jim Jordan’s positioning has driven the elevated trader consensus around an 87% probability that he will run for the top House Republican post after the 2026 midterms. Jordan stepped down from his Judiciary Committee chairmanship in September, forgoing another term in a key oversight role, while conducting an extensive fundraising and campaign swing across dozens of districts. Multiple reports indicate his advisers have actively discussed a minority-leader bid if Republicans lose their narrow majority, consistent with his prior unsuccessful speaker campaigns in 2023 and his broad support within the conference. With prediction markets assigning Democrats roughly 90% odds of taking the House, the absence of a confirmed announcement from Speaker Mike Johnson or other leaders has further concentrated expectations on Jordan as the leading contender.