Favorable environmental conditions and rapid recent intensification are driving the near-certain market consensus that Tropical Storm Karina will reach hurricane strength. National Hurricane Center observations show the system already at 70–80 mph sustained winds with a developing inner core, light vertical wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures, and high atmospheric moisture supporting further strengthening over the next 24–48 hours. Official forecasts indicate it will become a major hurricane well offshore, consistent with SHIPS and ensemble model guidance showing elevated rapid intensification probabilities. Only an abrupt, unexpected environmental shift—such as a sharp increase in shear or cooler waters—could prevent threshold crossing, though current data indicate minimal risk of that outcome before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa tempête tropicale Karina se transformera-t-elle en ouragan ?
La tempête tropicale Karina se transformera-t-elle en ouragan ?
Oui
>99% chance
$4,802 Vol.
$4,802 Vol.
5 sept. 2026
Oui
>99% chance
$4,802 Vol.
$4,802 Vol.
5 sept. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Karina reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Karina reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Karina is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Karina does not reach hurricane strength by September 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".Favorable environmental conditions and rapid recent intensification are driving the near-certain market consensus that Tropical Storm Karina will reach hurricane strength. National Hurricane Center observations show the system already at 70–80 mph sustained winds with a developing inner core, light vertical wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures, and high atmospheric moisture supporting further strengthening over the next 24–48 hours. Official forecasts indicate it will become a major hurricane well offshore, consistent with SHIPS and ensemble model guidance showing elevated rapid intensification probabilities. Only an abrupt, unexpected environmental shift—such as a sharp increase in shear or cooler waters—could prevent threshold crossing, though current data indicate minimal risk of that outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Karina reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Karina reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Karina is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Karina does not reach hurricane strength by September 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Karina reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Karina is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Karina does not reach hurricane strength by September 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Marché ouvert : Aug 27, 2026, 5:19 PM ET
Volume
$4,802Date de fin
6 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 27, 2026, 5:19 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Résolveur
0x65070BE91...Résultat proposé: Oui
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Oui
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Karina reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Karina reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Karina is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Karina does not reach hurricane strength by September 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".Favorable environmental conditions and rapid recent intensification are driving the near-certain market consensus that Tropical Storm Karina will reach hurricane strength. National Hurricane Center observations show the system already at 70–80 mph sustained winds with a developing inner core, light vertical wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures, and high atmospheric moisture supporting further strengthening over the next 24–48 hours. Official forecasts indicate it will become a major hurricane well offshore, consistent with SHIPS and ensemble model guidance showing elevated rapid intensification probabilities. Only an abrupt, unexpected environmental shift—such as a sharp increase in shear or cooler waters—could prevent threshold crossing, though current data indicate minimal risk of that outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Karina reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Karina reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Karina is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Karina does not reach hurricane strength by September 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Karina reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Karina is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Karina does not reach hurricane strength by September 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$4,802Date de fin
6 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 27, 2026, 5:19 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Résolveur
0x65070BE91...Résultat proposé: Oui
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Oui
Favorable environmental conditions and rapid recent intensification are driving the near-certain market consensus that Tropical Storm Karina will reach hurricane strength. National Hurricane Center observations show the system already at 70–80 mph sustained winds with a developing inner core, light vertical wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures, and high atmospheric moisture supporting further strengthening over the next 24–48 hours. Official forecasts indicate it will become a major hurricane well offshore, consistent with SHIPS and ensemble model guidance showing elevated rapid intensification probabilities. Only an abrupt, unexpected environmental shift—such as a sharp increase in shear or cooler waters—could prevent threshold crossing, though current data indicate minimal risk of that outcome before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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