**Recent forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and international models indicate a highest temperature on September 4 most likely in the 28–29°C range, with cloud cover, scattered showers, and moderate northerly to northwesterly winds limiting daytime heating.** Tropical depression Saudel, currently tracking near the South China Sea and Pearl River estuary, is the dominant near-term driver: its outer rainbands are expected to maintain mostly cloudy conditions and intermittent precipitation through Friday, reducing solar insolation and promoting evaporative cooling. This setup favors a maximum near or slightly below the seasonal climatological average for early September rather than the warmer 30–31°C outcomes that would require clearer skies and stronger subsidence. High humidity (typically 70–95%) and light winds further suppress the diurnal temperature range, while the developing El Niño background supports only modestly elevated baseline temperatures for the month overall. Model consensus shows limited spread, with official guidance centering on 25–29°C, which aligns with the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 28°C and 29°C and the lower weighting on 30°C+. Updated HKO briefings and revised model runs over the next 24–48 hours will be the key catalysts for any shift in trader positioning.