PPP’s Gyeonggi‑governor candidate Yang Hyang‑ja holds a press conference;

Yoo Seong‑min dips to 1%1%

Yoo Seong‑min is absent, reinforcing his exclusion from the race

Final pre‑election poll shows Democratic candidate Kim Dong‑yeon far ahead;

Yoo Seong‑min dips to 1%1%

media outlets label Yoo a “non‑candidate” in the race (no direct source, omitted)

Final pre‑election poll shows Choo leading comfortably;

Han’s name absent from voter intention surveys

PPP accelerates by‑election nominations in Gyeonggi (Hanam‑A) and selects other candidates, effectively sidelining Yoo Seong‑min from any gubernatorial role, cementing his low

Yoo Seong‑min rises to 2%1%

PPP accelerates by‑election nominations in Gyeonggi (Hanam‑A) and selects other candidates, effectively sidelining Yoo Seong‑min from any gubernatorial role, cementing his low probability

Immediate market correction back to 2% after clarification that Yoo Seong-min will not run

Yoo Seong-min plunges to 2%47%

Market corrected sharply as it became clear Yoo was not entering the race, confirming earlier refusals.

People Power Party accelerates by‑election nominations in Gyeonggi (Hanam‑A) and selects other candidates (Kim Seok‑hoon, Yoo Eui‑dong), confirming that Yoo Seong‑min is not in

People Power Party accelerates by‑election nominations in Gyeonggi (Hanam‑A) and selects other candidates (Kim Seok‑hoon, Yoo Eui‑dong), confirming that Yoo Seong‑min is not in the candidate pool, cementing his low odds

PPP’s Lee Junghyun says Gyeonggi nomination will “broaden the range of choices,” reaffirming Yoo’s non‑participation – The Asia Business Daily quoted the party chairman

PPP’s Lee Junghyun says Gyeonggi nomination will “broaden the range of choices,” reaffirming Yoo’s non‑participation – The Asia Business Daily quoted the party chairman emphasizing that “the Gyeonggi…candidate…has repeatedly made it clear that he will not run,” confirming the low

Vision debate highlights policy consensus but also fierce competition among candidates, with Kim Dong-yeon’s basic income policies under review

Debate dynamics did not improve Kim’s standing, maintaining low market confidence.

Reform Party’s Cho Eung-chun enters Gyeonggi governor race, sparking conservative alliance talk and increasing competition

The entry of a new candidate complicated the race, further diminishing Kim’s market prospects.

“Cho Eung‑cheon announces Gyeonggi governor candidacy, citing lack of major‑party candidates” – The entry of former Democratic lawmaker Cho, coupled with no formal Ahn candidacy,

Ahn Cheol-soo dips to 0%4%

“Cho Eung‑cheon announces Gyeonggi governor candidacy, citing lack of major‑party candidates” – The entry of former Democratic lawmaker Cho, coupled with no formal Ahn candidacy, reinforced Ahn’s absence from the race and pushed his

People Power Party delays its Gyeonggi governor nomination to May 2, signalling internal turmoil and leaving no opening for Yeom Tae‑yeong as an independent or third‑party

People Power Party delays its Gyeonggi governor nomination to May 2, signalling internal turmoil and leaving no opening for Yeom Tae‑yeong as an independent or third‑party candidate

Han Jun‑ho announces support for Choo Mi‑ae and Lee Jae‑myung’s agenda – Although he pledged backing, the market remained at zero, confirming that his own win was no longer

Han Jun‑ho announces support for Choo Mi‑ae and Lee Jae‑myung’s agenda – Although he pledged backing, the market remained at zero, confirming that his own win was no longer considered viable.

Choo Mi‑ae wins the Democratic primary, defeating Han Jun‑ho and Kim Dong‑yeon (Chosun, Korea Herald) – Victory in the primary confirmed her as the party’s official nominee,

Choo Mi-ae rises to 95%1%

Choo Mi‑ae wins the Democratic primary, defeating Han Jun‑ho and Kim Dong‑yeon (Chosun, Korea Herald) – Victory in the primary confirmed her as the party’s official nominee, finalizing the

Democratic Party officially selects Choo Mi‑ae as its Gyeonggi governor candidate (KBS World, Seoul Economic Daily) – The nomination cemented her front‑runner status, pushing the

Choo Mi-ae rises to 96%4%

Democratic Party officially selects Choo Mi‑ae as its Gyeonggi governor candidate (KBS World, Seoul Economic Daily) – The nomination cemented her front‑runner status, pushing the market to near‑certainty.

Primary results: Choo Mi‑ae wins outright;

Han Jun‑ho plunges to 0%23%

Han Jun‑ho concedes defeat, causing his

Choo Mi‑ae wins the Democratic primary outright;

Han Jun‑ho dips to 0%4%

Han Jun‑ho concedes defeat, effectively ending his chance to become governor

Primary results: Choo Mi‑ae wins nomination;

Han Jun‑ho plunges to 4%24%

Han Jun‑ho concedes defeat – The primary loss caused a steep drop, wiping out most of his market value.

Kim Dong-yeon brands himself as "Economic 119," emphasizing crisis management skills amid economic concerns

Kim Dong-yeon plunges to 0%19%

Despite the campaign effort, market confidence collapsed, possibly due to stronger opponents or strategic shifts.

Poll shows Kim Dong-yeon leading Democratic primary with 35%, but with a significant undecided voter share

Kim Dong-yeon drops to 19%8%

Despite leading, uncertainty and undecided voters caused a

Despite his refusals, a PPP suitability survey still ranks Yoo first within the margin of error, but the headline focuses on Democratic candidate Kim Dong‑yeon’s lead, dampening

Yoo Seong‑min dips to 2%2%

Despite his refusals, a PPP suitability survey still ranks Yoo first within the margin of error, but the headline focuses on Democratic candidate Kim Dong‑yeon’s lead, dampening Yoo’s momentum

Lee Jun‑seok admits to using a forged Harvard diploma in an academic‑fraud row

The revelation of a fabricated academic credential further eroded trust in his integrity, confirming the market’s assessment that his chances of winning the Gyeonggi governorship were effectively nil.

Lee Jun‑seok reveals Harvard diploma in academic‑fraud row, accusing rival Jeon Han‑gil of “tajinyo‑style” tactics – The academic‑fraud controversy further eroded public trust,

Lee Jun‑seok reveals Harvard diploma in academic‑fraud row, accusing rival Jeon Han‑gil of “tajinyo‑style” tactics – The academic‑fraud controversy further eroded public trust, cementing the outcome’s

People Power Party admits it is “struggling” to find a Gyeonggi candidate and formally considers Yoo Seong‑min as a moderate counter‑balance, but he repeatedly rebuffs the party’s

Yoo Seong‑min rises to 6%1%

People Power Party admits it is “struggling” to find a Gyeonggi candidate and formally considers Yoo Seong‑min as a moderate counter‑balance, but he repeatedly rebuffs the party’s calls to run

Jang Dong‑hyuk (PPP) publicly reaches out to Yoo Seong‑min for the Gyeonggi bid;

Yoo Seong‑min dips to 1%4%

Yoo’s firm “no change” stance is reported, confirming his non‑participation and sending his

Yoo Seong‑min repeatedly rebuffs PPP’s invitation to run for Gyeonggi governor – At a West Sea Defense Day ceremony, Yoo told reporters he had “not yet given an answer” to the

Yoo Seong‑min drops to 2%6%

Yoo Seong‑min repeatedly rebuffs PPP’s invitation to run for Gyeonggi governor – At a West Sea Defense Day ceremony, Yoo told reporters he had “not yet given an answer” to the party’s nomination committee, confirming his unwillingness to enter the race and sending his market

PPP leadership acknowledges struggle to find Gyeonggi candidate, cites Yoo Seong‑min as unlikely – The Chosun English article reported the party’s difficulty in securing a nominee

Yoo Seong‑min dips to 1%1%

PPP leadership acknowledges struggle to find Gyeonggi candidate, cites Yoo Seong‑min as unlikely – The Chosun English article reported the party’s difficulty in securing a nominee and highlighted Yoo’s repeated refusals, cementing the market’s view that his chances were now negligible.

Yoo Seong-min repeatedly rebuffs People Power Party calls to run for Gyeonggi governor

Yoo Seong-min dips to 2%1%

Yoo's firm rejection of candidacy amid party recruitment efforts solidified market expectations that he would not be a contender.

PPP struggles to field a candidate;

Yoo Seong‑min dips to 5%1%

party officials publicly note Yoo’s repeated statements that he “has no intention to run”

People Power Party Chairman Lee Junghyun states Gyeonggi nomination will be a strategic decision; Yoo Seong-min again confirms no intention to run

Yoo Seong-min rises to 3%1%

Despite a slight temporary uptick due to speculation, Yoo reiterated his refusal to run, limiting market optimism.

“PPP struggles to field a Gyeonggi governor candidate, eyes Ahn Cheol‑soo among others” – Despite earlier declines, party insiders publicly floated Ahn as a possible draft,

Ahn Cheol-soo rises to 4%1%

“PPP struggles to field a Gyeonggi governor candidate, eyes Ahn Cheol‑soo among others” – Despite earlier declines, party insiders publicly floated Ahn as a possible draft, briefly reviving speculation and lifting his

Democratic Party kicks off Gyeonggi governor primary;

Han Jun‑ho jumps to 21%8%

Han Jun‑ho, Choo Mi‑ae and Kim Dong‑yeon begin full‑scale campaigns – The start of the primary campaign generated media attention and a surge in Han’s support probability.

The Democratic Party officially launches the Gyeonggi primary;

Han Jun‑ho drops to 9%7%

Han Jun‑ho, Choo Mi‑ae and Kim Dong‑yeon begin full‑scale campaigns

Democratic Party kicks off the Gyeonggi governor primary;

Han Jun‑ho jumps to 27%9%

Han, Choo Mi‑ae and incumbent Kim Dong‑yeon begin full‑scale campaigns

Yeom Tae-yeong holds strategy briefing endorsing Han Junho and expressing confidence in Han's momentum in Democratic primary

Yeom Tae-yeong rises to 1%1%

Yeom's active support for Han Junho confirms his non-candidacy, maintaining his market

Kim Dong‑yeon declares reelection bid, confirming a five‑way Democratic primary that includes Han Jun‑ho – The entry of the incumbent sharpened the contest, nudging Han’s odds

Han Jun‑ho rises to 13%4%

Kim Dong‑yeon declares reelection bid, confirming a five‑way Democratic primary that includes Han Jun‑ho – The entry of the incumbent sharpened the contest, nudging Han’s odds upward as voters considered a split field.

Choo Mi‑ae and Kim Dong‑yeon declare Democratic primary bids, while Yoo Seong‑min declines – Seoul Economic Daily noted that former lawmakers including Yoo were mentioned as

Yoo Seong‑min drops to 8%6%

Choo Mi‑ae and Kim Dong‑yeon declare Democratic primary bids, while Yoo Seong‑min declines – Seoul Economic Daily noted that former lawmakers including Yoo were mentioned as potential candidates but “all either declined to run or turned down suggestions,” prompting a sharp fall in his

Kim Dong-yeon and Choo Mi-ae officially declare bids for Democratic Party nomination, intensifying primary competition

Kim Dong-yeon drops to 27%12%

The entry of a strong rival, Choo Mi-ae, led to a market reassessment and

Incumbent Governor Kim Dong-yeon and ruling party lawmaker Choo Mi-ae officially declare bids for Gyeonggi governor

Yoo Seong-min dips to 2%3%

The formal entry of strong candidates from major parties reduced the perceived viability of Yoo's candidacy.

“Lawmakers Ahn Cheol‑soo and Kim Eun‑hye decline to run for Gyeonggi governor” – Major Korean dailies reported that Ahn officially turned down the party’s invitation to contest

Ahn Cheol-soo drops to 3%9%

“Lawmakers Ahn Cheol‑soo and Kim Eun‑hye decline to run for Gyeonggi governor” – Major Korean dailies reported that Ahn officially turned down the party’s invitation to contest the governorship, removing him from contention and sending his market

Lee Jun‑seok’s election‑fraud debate video tops 5 million views, underscoring low support – A marathon YouTube discussion hosted by Lee attracted massive viewership but failed to

Lee Jun‑seok’s election‑fraud debate video tops 5 million views, underscoring low support – A marathon YouTube discussion hosted by Lee attracted massive viewership but failed to translate into electoral backing, confirming the market’s assessment that he was no longer a viable gubernatorial contender.

Lee Jun‑seok’s YouTube debate on election fraud draws 5 million+ views, sparking criticism

The high‑profile online debate amplified conspiracy‑theory accusations against him, reinforcing negative public perception and cementing the zero‑

Commemoration of actress Lee Eun-ju in Gyeonggi Province draws public attention away from local political campaigns

The public focus on cultural events in Gyeonggi Province further diminished attention on Lee Un-ju’s campaign, reinforcing her low market valuation.

Han Jun‑ho launches Gyeonggi governor bid, pledges to continue Lee Jae‑myung’s policies – The formal announcement gave him a clear presence in the race, lifting his market

Han Jun‑ho jumps to 9%5%

Han Jun‑ho launches Gyeonggi governor bid, pledges to continue Lee Jae‑myung’s policies – The formal announcement gave him a clear presence in the race, lifting his market probability from the low single‑digits to near‑double‑digits.

Lee Jun‑seok urges scrapping of the Constitutional Appeal Act, accusing the Democratic Party of creating a “fourth trial” – The aggressive policy stance failed to revive his

Lee Jun‑seok urges scrapping of the Constitutional Appeal Act, accusing the Democratic Party of creating a “fourth trial” – The aggressive policy stance failed to revive his electoral odds, confirming the market’s view that his candidacy was no longer viable.

Continued absence of Yoo Seong-min from candidate lists amid rising competition

Yoo Seong-min dips to 3%4%

As other candidates declared their intentions and Yoo remained silent, market confidence in his chances further declined.

Democratic Party officially selects Choo Mi-ae as its candidate for Gyeonggi Governor

Yeom Tae-yeong drops to 0%10%

The party's nomination of Choo Mi-ae effectively ends Yeom's chances, reflected by his outcome

Polls show Kim Dong-yeon leading Democratic primary candidates outside margin of error, reinforcing his frontrunner status

Kim Dong-yeon jumps to 40%5%

Positive polling data supported a

Reform Party leader Lee Jun‑seok cleared of false‑information charge – A court found insufficient evidence that Lee had fabricated a 6 million‑won survey cost, ending a legal

Reform Party leader Lee Jun‑seok cleared of false‑information charge – A court found insufficient evidence that Lee had fabricated a 6 million‑won survey cost, ending a legal battle that had kept his candidacy under scrutiny. The clearance halted further

Lee Jun‑seok is again cleared of a false‑information charge concerning a 2022 local‑election survey, yet the repeated legal headlines keep his image tarnished and the market at a

Lee Jun‑seok drops to 0%5%

Lee Jun‑seok is again cleared of a false‑information charge concerning a 2022 local‑election survey, yet the repeated legal headlines keep his image tarnished and the market at a low level

Lee Jun‑seok cleared of a false‑information charge related to a 6 million‑won survey cost for the 2022 local election;

Lee Jun-seok drops to 0%5%

investigators found no proof of wrongdoing.

Police clear Lee Jun‑seok of false‑information charge related to 2022 local‑election survey costs – Although the clearance removed a legal threat, the surrounding controversy kept

Police clear Lee Jun‑seok of false‑information charge related to 2022 local‑election survey costs – Although the clearance removed a legal threat, the surrounding controversy kept his support low and prevented any

Police clear Lee Jun‑seok of false‑information charge over alleged 2022 survey‑funding scandal

Although the clearance removed a separate legal cloud (the claim that he funded a 2022 local‑election survey), the repeated need for police investigations underscored a pattern of legal troubles, preventing any rebound in his market

Kim Dong-yeon pledges major initiatives including asset building for residents and infrastructure projects in his reelection campaign launch

Kim Dong-yeon jumps to 35%14%

His detailed policy proposals temporarily boosted market confidence in his chances.

President Lee Jae-myung emphasizes government reforms and political stability, overshadowing opposition candidates

President Lee Jae-myung’s strong reform agenda and political presence maintained focus on ruling party candidates, limiting Lee Un-ju’s visibility and electoral prospects.

Poll shows Yoo Seong‑min ahead in PPP primary for Gyeonggi governor – A CHOSUN Biz poll reported Yoo topping the People Power Party primary field, lifting market confidence in his

Yoo Seong‑min rises to 14%2%

Poll shows Yoo Seong‑min ahead in PPP primary for Gyeonggi governor – A CHOSUN Biz poll reported Yoo topping the People Power Party primary field, lifting market confidence in his candidacy.

Choo Mi‑ae announces she will not run for Gyeonggi governor, focusing on legislative work – A sudden withdrawal report caused a steep drop, reflecting loss of candidate‑specific

Choo Mi-ae plunges to 5%27%

Choo Mi‑ae announces she will not run for Gyeonggi governor, focusing on legislative work – A sudden withdrawal report caused a steep drop, reflecting loss of candidate‑specific support.

Reform Party leader Lee Jun‑seok cleared by police of alleged false statements made during a televised debate;

Lee Jun-seok plunges to 3%24%

the police said evidence was insufficient.

Police clear Lee Jun‑seok of false‑information charge related to explicit debate comments

Lee Jun‑seok dips to 3%4%

The Reform Party leader was cleared of a false‑information allegation concerning the same debate remark, but the police cited “insufficient evidence,” keeping the controversy alive and reinforcing doubts about his electability, which pushed the

Poll surge for ruling‑party candidate Choo Mi‑ae widens gap;

Yoo Seong‑min plunges to 17%21%

analysts note Yoo’s lead may be temporary (no direct source, omitted)

Yoo Seong-min publicly declines to run for Gyeonggi Province governor despite speculation

Yoo Seong-min plunges to 21%27%

Yoo Seong-min made clear he would not enter the gubernatorial race, dampening market expectations for his candidacy and causing a significant

Yeom Tae-yeong announces endorsement of Han Junho in Democratic primary, signaling reduced personal candidacy prospects

Yeom Tae-yeong plunges to 20%30%

Yeom publicly endorses Han Junho, indicating he will not pursue the nomination aggressively, causing market confidence in his winning to plummet.

No major endorsements or campaign announcements from Lee Un-ju as other candidates consolidate support

Lee Un-ju plunges to 6%44%

After the initial market optimism, Lee Un-ju failed to generate notable campaign news or endorsements, while other candidates gained traction, leading to a sharp market

DP signals interest in Choo Mi‑ae for Gyeonggi governor race – Early speculation that the ruling Democratic Party might field Choo kept the market modestly bullish but still

Choo Mi-ae dips to 46%3%

DP signals interest in Choo Mi‑ae for Gyeonggi governor race – Early speculation that the ruling Democratic Party might field Choo kept the market modestly bullish but still uncertain.

Kim Dong-yeon officially announces candidacy for Gyeonggi Governor at Anyang Station, joining a competitive field including Choo Mi-ae and others

Kim Dong-yeon plunges to 19%31%

This announcement marked the start of his campaign but also introduced competition, causing initial

Lawmakers file disciplinary motion to expel Lee Jun‑seok over misogynistic debate remark

Lee Jun‑seok plunges to 7%20%

Twenty‑one MPs from five parties lodged a motion to suspend Lee, accusing him of sexual harassment and election‑law violations after he asked a provocative question about “sticking chopsticks in a woman’s genitals” during a televised debate. The motion sparked a nationwide backlash and caused the market’s confidence in his gubernatorial prospects to plunge sharply.