Recent polling in Alagoas shows a technical tie among Marina JHC, Arthur Lira, and Renan Calheiros for the two Senate seats, with Davi Davino Filho remaining competitive within margins of error. Multiple surveys from late September indicate combined first- and second-choice support clustered around 40-42% for the leaders, reflecting the state's dual-vote system and regional divides such as stronger backing for Marina in the capital. The absence of decisive campaign shifts or endorsements has kept probabilities balanced, as voters weigh established political networks against newer contenders. Late-campaign events, turnout patterns in key municipalities, or clearer differentiation on state issues like health and security could consolidate preferences ahead of the October 4 election.