Lula maintains a commanding lead in Piauí for first place in the October 4 first round, with recent polls showing 59-74% support among valid votes amid a fragmented field. The state's consistent backing for the PT, including Lula's strong 2022 performance and the current governor's high standing, underpins trader consensus reflected in the 98.9% implied probability. Opposition candidates such as Flávio Bolsonaro register far behind in single digits to low twenties, with no recent polling shifts or campaign events indicating a viable path to overtake. Late developments like a major scandal or turnout surge could theoretically narrow the gap, though historical patterns and current margins make such reversals improbable before election day.