Recent polls show incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holding a narrow first-round lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of the October 4 vote, with Lula at around 39 percent and Bolsonaro at 33 percent in the latest Quaest survey. Flávio has consolidated much of the conservative vote following his father Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement, while Lula faces pressure from economic concerns and approval ratings near 44-47 percent. This fragmented field, with multiple right-of-center governors polling in single digits, has driven trader consensus toward the likelihood of a very close first-round result under 5 percent for either frontrunner. Scheduled events such as further polling releases and potential endorsements from figures like Ronaldo Caiado or Romeu Zema could still shift positioning before election day.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाब्राज़ील राष्ट्रपति चुनाव का पहला दौर: जीत का अंतर
ब्राज़ील राष्ट्रपति चुनाव का पहला दौर: जीत का अंतर
लूला दा सिल्वा <5% 31%
फ़्लावियो बोल्सोनारो <5% 23%
लूला दा सिल्वा 5-10% 18%
अन्य 8.2%
$231,656 वॉल्यूम
$231,656 वॉल्यूम
4 अक्टू, 2026
लूला दा सिल्वा 15%+
4%
लूला दा सिल्वा 10-15%
8%
लूला दा सिल्वा 5-10%
18%
लूला दा सिल्वा <5%
41%
फ्लावियो बोल्सोनारो 10%+
2%
फ्लावियो बोलसोनारो 5-10%
6%
फ़्लावियो बोल्सोनारो <5%
23%
रेनेन सैंटोस विजय
5%
तार्सीसियो डी फ्रीतास की जीत
<1%
रातिन्हो जूनियर की विजय
1%
अन्य
8%
लूला दा सिल्वा <5% 31%
फ़्लावियो बोल्सोनारो <5% 23%
लूला दा सिल्वा 5-10% 18%
अन्य 8.2%
$231,656 वॉल्यूम
$231,656 वॉल्यूम
4 अक्टू, 2026
लूला दा सिल्वा 15%+
$4,601 वॉल्यूम
4%
लूला दा सिल्वा 10-15%
$2,627 वॉल्यूम
8%
लूला दा सिल्वा 5-10%
$6,808 वॉल्यूम
18%
लूला दा सिल्वा <5%
$2,923 वॉल्यूम
41%
फ्लावियो बोल्सोनारो 10%+
$1,984 वॉल्यूम
2%
फ्लावियो बोलसोनारो 5-10%
$2,309 वॉल्यूम
6%
फ़्लावियो बोल्सोनारो <5%
$4,026 वॉल्यूम
23%
रेनेन सैंटोस विजय
$200,633 वॉल्यूम
5%
तार्सीसियो डी फ्रीतास की जीत
$1,712 वॉल्यूम
<1%
रातिन्हो जूनियर की विजय
$1,774 वॉल्यूम
1%
अन्य
$2,258 वॉल्यूम
8%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls show incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holding a narrow first-round lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of the October 4 vote, with Lula at around 39 percent and Bolsonaro at 33 percent in the latest Quaest survey. Flávio has consolidated much of the conservative vote following his father Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement, while Lula faces pressure from economic concerns and approval ratings near 44-47 percent. This fragmented field, with multiple right-of-center governors polling in single digits, has driven trader consensus toward the likelihood of a very close first-round result under 5 percent for either frontrunner. Scheduled events such as further polling releases and potential endorsements from figures like Ronaldo Caiado or Romeu Zema could still shift positioning before election day.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
बाज़ार खुला: Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$231,656समाप्ति तिथि
4 अक्टू, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls show incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holding a narrow first-round lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of the October 4 vote, with Lula at around 39 percent and Bolsonaro at 33 percent in the latest Quaest survey. Flávio has consolidated much of the conservative vote following his father Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement, while Lula faces pressure from economic concerns and approval ratings near 44-47 percent. This fragmented field, with multiple right-of-center governors polling in single digits, has driven trader consensus toward the likelihood of a very close first-round result under 5 percent for either frontrunner. Scheduled events such as further polling releases and potential endorsements from figures like Ronaldo Caiado or Romeu Zema could still shift positioning before election day.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
वॉल्यूम
$231,656समाप्ति तिथि
4 अक्टू, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polls show incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holding a narrow first-round lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of the October 4 vote, with Lula at around 39 percent and Bolsonaro at 33 percent in the latest Quaest survey. Flávio has consolidated much of the conservative vote following his father Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement, while Lula faces pressure from economic concerns and approval ratings near 44-47 percent. This fragmented field, with multiple right-of-center governors polling in single digits, has driven trader consensus toward the likelihood of a very close first-round result under 5 percent for either frontrunner. Scheduled events such as further polling releases and potential endorsements from figures like Ronaldo Caiado or Romeu Zema could still shift positioning before election day.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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