Nayib Bukele holds a commanding 94.5% implied probability in the El Salvador presidential election market ahead of the February 28, 2027 vote, driven by his party's supermajority in the Legislative Assembly and 2025 constitutional reforms that abolished term limits, extended the presidential term to six years, eliminated the runoff system, and advanced the election date to align cycles. His Nuevas Ideas party formally nominated him unopposed in July 2026 for a third consecutive term, while sustained high approval ratings reflect the ongoing state of emergency's impact on sharply reducing violent crime since 2022. Opposition candidates from ARENA and FMLN, including Mayteé Iraheta and Rafael Aguirre, register minimal support. Trader consensus could shift only with unforeseen late developments such as major health events, legal challenges to candidacy eligibility, or abrupt changes in security conditions before February.