In the closely contested Galway West by-election set for May 22 to fill the Dáil seat vacated by President Catherine Connolly, trader consensus favors Independent Ireland councillor Noel Thomas at 45.5% implied probability, buoyed by his strong local profile and grassroots campaigning on housing and infrastructure amid Independent Ireland's rising appeal. Fine Gael's Seán Kyne trails at 32.4% despite a slight edge in first preferences (17% to Thomas's 16%) from the recent Irish Times/TG4/Ipsos poll, but fresh allegations two days ago of his involvement in blackmailing a public official appear to erode his momentum. Independent mayor Mike Cubbard (11.7%) and Social Democrats' Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich (10.3%) vie for transfers under PR-STV rules, with Labour's Helen Ogbu and Sinn Féin's Mark Lohan further back amid focus on Ring Road delivery, island investments, and neutrality debates.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयागैलवे - वेस्ट उप - चुनाव विजेता?
गैलवे - वेस्ट उप - चुनाव विजेता?
नोल थॉमस 46%
सीन काइने 32.3%
मीधे निक फिनलाओइच 10.4%
माइक कबर्ड 9.6%
$44,287 वॉल्यूम
$44,287 वॉल्यूम
शीला गैरिटी
1%
सीन काइने
32%
नियाल मर्फी
<1%
मीधे निक फिनलाओइच
10%
ऑर्ला न्यूजेंट
<1%
हेलेन ओग्बु
7%
डेनमैन रूके
1%
नोल थॉमस
46%
थॉमस वेल्बी
<1%
माइक कबर्ड
10%
मार्क लोहन
5%
नोल थॉमस 46%
सीन काइने 32.3%
मीधे निक फिनलाओइच 10.4%
माइक कबर्ड 9.6%
$44,287 वॉल्यूम
$44,287 वॉल्यूम
शीला गैरिटी
1%
सीन काइने
32%
नियाल मर्फी
<1%
मीधे निक फिनलाओइच
10%
ऑर्ला न्यूजेंट
<1%
हेलेन ओग्बु
7%
डेनमैन रूके
1%
नोल थॉमस
46%
थॉमस वेल्बी
<1%
माइक कबर्ड
10%
मार्क लोहन
5%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.
If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
बाज़ार खुला: Feb 25, 2026, 7:28 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.
If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...In the closely contested Galway West by-election set for May 22 to fill the Dáil seat vacated by President Catherine Connolly, trader consensus favors Independent Ireland councillor Noel Thomas at 45.5% implied probability, buoyed by his strong local profile and grassroots campaigning on housing and infrastructure amid Independent Ireland's rising appeal. Fine Gael's Seán Kyne trails at 32.4% despite a slight edge in first preferences (17% to Thomas's 16%) from the recent Irish Times/TG4/Ipsos poll, but fresh allegations two days ago of his involvement in blackmailing a public official appear to erode his momentum. Independent mayor Mike Cubbard (11.7%) and Social Democrats' Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich (10.3%) vie for transfers under PR-STV rules, with Labour's Helen Ogbu and Sinn Féin's Mark Lohan further back amid focus on Ring Road delivery, island investments, and neutrality debates.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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