Rick Jackson’s late February entry and self-funded ad blitz exceeding $80 million have driven recent polling gains and trader consensus favoring him at 54.5 percent for the May 19 Republican primary. Lt. Gov. Burt Jones holds 42 percent, anchored by his statewide name recognition, Trump endorsement from last year, and appeals to core conservative voters, though recent surveys show him trailing Jackson by a few points amid heavy mutual attacks on campaign financing. Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger and Attorney General Chris Carr remain distant at 4.3 percent and 0.6 percent, reflecting limited momentum in a race dominated by the top two contenders. With early voting underway and roughly 30 percent of Republicans still undecided, the market reflects the narrow edge Jackson has built through spending while acknowledging Jones’s institutional support and potential for late shifts before primary day.