Ongoing US-brokered talks in Washington focus on extending the April 2026 ceasefire—most recently prolonged by 45 days on May 15—and advancing Hezbollah disarmament along the border, yet Lebanese officials have explicitly ruled out diplomatic recognition or economic ties in the near term. Prime Minister Nawaf Salam’s government and President Joseph Aoun have prioritized restoring state sovereignty and territorial integrity while facing domestic opposition from Hezbollah, which rejects normalization outright. Constitutional barriers in Lebanon and Israel’s insistence on complete militant disarmament before any broader agreement further limit momentum. These dynamics, combined with repeated violations of the shaky truce and the absence of any timeline for full relations, underpin traders’ strong consensus that formal normalization will not occur before 2027.