Ongoing conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, including the 2026 Lebanon war and fragile U.S.-brokered ceasefires with repeated violations, remains the dominant barrier. Lebanese Prime Minister statements from late 2025 explicitly described the country as “far from” diplomatic or economic normalization, citing commitment to the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative and domestic political resistance tied to Hezbollah’s influence and the Palestinian issue. Recent framework talks focus on border security, Israeli withdrawals, and Hezbollah disarmament—a condition rejected by the group—rather than full diplomatic relations. Fragile truces and ongoing strikes through mid-2026 underscore the timeline constraints before 2027, aligning with trader consensus reflected in the 88.5% probability on “No.”