Ongoing U.S.-brokered talks in Washington between Israel and Lebanon, including a 45-day ceasefire extension agreed May 15 following rounds on April 14 and May 14, center on Hezbollah disarmament, Israeli withdrawal from southern territory, and border security. Israeli officials seek a lasting peace treaty with normalized relations, while Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam has stated explicitly that Beirut pursues peace without diplomatic normalization. Hezbollah has rejected any such accords, and repeated ceasefire violations continue amid these negotiations. These developments sustain trader consensus that full normalization remains unlikely before 2027 given the procedural hurdles, domestic Lebanese divisions, and absence of a comprehensive agreement framework.