Recent developments center on the Justice Department’s September 15, 2026, appeal before the Fourth Circuit seeking to revive the dismissed Virginia indictments against James Comey for alleged false statements to Congress and obstruction. A three-judge panel expressed skepticism that the interim U.S. attorney’s appointment was lawful, suggesting the lower court’s dismissal without prejudice is likely to stand on procedural grounds, though the government disputes statute-of-limitations barriers to recharging. Separately, the April 2026 North Carolina indictment charging Comey with threats to the president over a social media post remains active, with arraignment set for September 30 and trial for October 21; defense motions to dismiss on selective-prosecution grounds are pending. Traders view these parallel proceedings, combined with the administration’s continued emphasis on the cases, as evidence that charges are unlikely to be fully dropped before the December 31 resolution window, producing the current 60% implied probability on the “No” outcome.