The closely matched market-implied odds around 1.10–1.19°C for June 2026 reflect ongoing ENSO transition and the long-term warming trend. Equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperatures have risen rapidly, with models from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center and IRI assigning an 82–98% chance of El Niño developing in May–July 2026, which typically adds 0.1–0.2°C to global anomalies within months. This occurs against a baseline where 2025 averaged near 1.19°C above the 1951–1980 reference, and five-year forecasts from the WMO indicate continued elevated temperatures. Differentiation between the leading bins hinges on the speed of atmospheric coupling and short-term variability in June observations, with official monthly releases from NASA GISS and NOAA expected to resolve the outcome.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाJune 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.10–1.14ºC 36%
1.15–1.19ºC 21%
<1.10ºC 16%
1.20–1.24ºC 14%
नया
नया
30 जून, 2026
<1.10ºC
20%
1.10–1.14ºC
36%
1.15–1.19ºC
43%
1.20–1.24ºC
14%
1.25–1.29ºC
9%
>1.29ºC
3%
1.10–1.14ºC 36%
1.15–1.19ºC 21%
<1.10ºC 16%
1.20–1.24ºC 14%
नया
नया
30 जून, 2026
<1.10ºC
$70 वॉल्यूम
20%
1.10–1.14ºC
$77 वॉल्यूम
36%
1.15–1.19ºC
$56 वॉल्यूम
43%
1.20–1.24ºC
$1,027 वॉल्यूम
14%
1.25–1.29ºC
$1,030 वॉल्यूम
9%
>1.29ºC
$529 वॉल्यूम
3%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.The closely matched market-implied odds around 1.10–1.19°C for June 2026 reflect ongoing ENSO transition and the long-term warming trend. Equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperatures have risen rapidly, with models from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center and IRI assigning an 82–98% chance of El Niño developing in May–July 2026, which typically adds 0.1–0.2°C to global anomalies within months. This occurs against a baseline where 2025 averaged near 1.19°C above the 1951–1980 reference, and five-year forecasts from the WMO indicate continued elevated temperatures. Differentiation between the leading bins hinges on the speed of atmospheric coupling and short-term variability in June observations, with official monthly releases from NASA GISS and NOAA expected to resolve the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
बाज़ार खुला: May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$2,789समाप्ति तिथि
30 जून, 2026बाज़ार खुला
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.The closely matched market-implied odds around 1.10–1.19°C for June 2026 reflect ongoing ENSO transition and the long-term warming trend. Equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperatures have risen rapidly, with models from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center and IRI assigning an 82–98% chance of El Niño developing in May–July 2026, which typically adds 0.1–0.2°C to global anomalies within months. This occurs against a baseline where 2025 averaged near 1.19°C above the 1951–1980 reference, and five-year forecasts from the WMO indicate continued elevated temperatures. Differentiation between the leading bins hinges on the speed of atmospheric coupling and short-term variability in June observations, with official monthly releases from NASA GISS and NOAA expected to resolve the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
वॉल्यूम
$2,789समाप्ति तिथि
30 जून, 2026बाज़ार खुला
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched market-implied odds around 1.10–1.19°C for June 2026 reflect ongoing ENSO transition and the long-term warming trend. Equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperatures have risen rapidly, with models from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center and IRI assigning an 82–98% chance of El Niño developing in May–July 2026, which typically adds 0.1–0.2°C to global anomalies within months. This occurs against a baseline where 2025 averaged near 1.19°C above the 1951–1980 reference, and five-year forecasts from the WMO indicate continued elevated temperatures. Differentiation between the leading bins hinges on the speed of atmospheric coupling and short-term variability in June observations, with official monthly releases from NASA GISS and NOAA expected to resolve the outcome.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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