**Developing El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, with Niño-3.4 sea surface temperatures recently reaching +0.7 to +0.9°C and forecasts indicating further strengthening through boreal summer, represent the dominant near-term driver elevating trader expectations for a July 2026 global temperature anomaly near 1.1–1.24°C above the pre-industrial baseline.** This rapid transition from neutral or weak La Niña conditions aligns with high model consensus from NOAA, IRI, and WMO ensembles projecting above-normal surface temperatures across most of the globe during June–August 2026, reinforced by the underlying multi-decadal warming trend of roughly 0.2°C per decade. Differentiation among the tightly bunched market outcomes (47.5% for 1.10–1.14°C, 45% for 1.20–1.24°C) stems from uncertainty in exact July timing, the pace of El Niño intensification, internal atmospheric variability, and minor contributions from other modes such as the Indian Ocean Dipole. Upcoming weekly Niño indices, updated seasonal model runs, and July observational data releases will provide key signals for refining these probabilities.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाजुलाई 2026 तापमान में वृद्धि (ºC)
जुलाई 2026 तापमान में वृद्धि (ºC)
1.10–1.14ºC 47%
1.20–1.24ºC 45%
1.15–1.19ºC 42%
<1.10ºC 41%
नया
नया
1 अग, 2026
<1.10ºC
41%
1.10–1.14ºC
47%
1.15–1.19ºC
42%
1.20–1.24ºC
45%
1.25–1.29ºC
40%
>1.29ºC
40%
1.10–1.14ºC 47%
1.20–1.24ºC 45%
1.15–1.19ºC 42%
<1.10ºC 41%
नया
नया
1 अग, 2026
<1.10ºC
$83 वॉल्यूम
41%
1.10–1.14ºC
$63 वॉल्यूम
47%
1.15–1.19ºC
$47 वॉल्यूम
42%
1.20–1.24ºC
$45 वॉल्यूम
45%
1.25–1.29ºC
$84 वॉल्यूम
40%
>1.29ºC
$54 वॉल्यूम
40%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.**Developing El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, with Niño-3.4 sea surface temperatures recently reaching +0.7 to +0.9°C and forecasts indicating further strengthening through boreal summer, represent the dominant near-term driver elevating trader expectations for a July 2026 global temperature anomaly near 1.1–1.24°C above the pre-industrial baseline.**
This rapid transition from neutral or weak La Niña conditions aligns with high model consensus from NOAA, IRI, and WMO ensembles projecting above-normal surface temperatures across most of the globe during June–August 2026, reinforced by the underlying multi-decadal warming trend of roughly 0.2°C per decade. Differentiation among the tightly bunched market outcomes (47.5% for 1.10–1.14°C, 45% for 1.20–1.24°C) stems from uncertainty in exact July timing, the pace of El Niño intensification, internal atmospheric variability, and minor contributions from other modes such as the Indian Ocean Dipole. Upcoming weekly Niño indices, updated seasonal model runs, and July observational data releases will provide key signals for refining these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
बाज़ार खुला: Jun 9, 2026, 1:11 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$377समाप्ति तिथि
1 अग, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jun 9, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.**Developing El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, with Niño-3.4 sea surface temperatures recently reaching +0.7 to +0.9°C and forecasts indicating further strengthening through boreal summer, represent the dominant near-term driver elevating trader expectations for a July 2026 global temperature anomaly near 1.1–1.24°C above the pre-industrial baseline.**
This rapid transition from neutral or weak La Niña conditions aligns with high model consensus from NOAA, IRI, and WMO ensembles projecting above-normal surface temperatures across most of the globe during June–August 2026, reinforced by the underlying multi-decadal warming trend of roughly 0.2°C per decade. Differentiation among the tightly bunched market outcomes (47.5% for 1.10–1.14°C, 45% for 1.20–1.24°C) stems from uncertainty in exact July timing, the pace of El Niño intensification, internal atmospheric variability, and minor contributions from other modes such as the Indian Ocean Dipole. Upcoming weekly Niño indices, updated seasonal model runs, and July observational data releases will provide key signals for refining these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
वॉल्यूम
$377समाप्ति तिथि
1 अग, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jun 9, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Developing El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, with Niño-3.4 sea surface temperatures recently reaching +0.7 to +0.9°C and forecasts indicating further strengthening through boreal summer, represent the dominant near-term driver elevating trader expectations for a July 2026 global temperature anomaly near 1.1–1.24°C above the pre-industrial baseline.** This rapid transition from neutral or weak La Niña conditions aligns with high model consensus from NOAA, IRI, and WMO ensembles projecting above-normal surface temperatures across most of the globe during June–August 2026, reinforced by the underlying multi-decadal warming trend of roughly 0.2°C per decade. Differentiation among the tightly bunched market outcomes (47.5% for 1.10–1.14°C, 45% for 1.20–1.24°C) stems from uncertainty in exact July timing, the pace of El Niño intensification, internal atmospheric variability, and minor contributions from other modes such as the Indian Ocean Dipole. Upcoming weekly Niño indices, updated seasonal model runs, and July observational data releases will provide key signals for refining these probabilities.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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