Recent developments show a developing El Niño event boosting baseline global temperatures alongside regional heatwaves across Europe and the US, keeping daily anomalies elevated but variable. July 1 saw notable European extremes, such as the Czech Republic's national record, while subsequent days featured shifting atmospheric patterns that moderated or redistributed heat. With all outcomes at equal 50% market-implied odds, trader sentiment reflects genuine uncertainty in distinguishing the precise ranking, driven by natural day-to-day fluctuations in global mean surface temperature from circulation patterns, land-sea contrasts, and reanalysis dataset margins (e.g., ERA5). Upcoming refined observational data from agencies like NOAA and Copernicus will clarify whether any of these days surpasses prior records set in 2023–2024.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2026 July 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
2026 July 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
1st hottest 52%
3rd hottest 40%
2nd hottest 28%
4th or lower 24%
नया
नया
31 जुल, 2026
1st hottest
52%
2nd hottest
28%
3rd hottest
40%
4th or lower
24%
1st hottest 52%
3rd hottest 40%
2nd hottest 28%
4th or lower 24%
नया
नया
31 जुल, 2026
1st hottest
$1 वॉल्यूम
52%
2nd hottest
$0 वॉल्यूम
28%
3rd hottest
$0 वॉल्यूम
40%
4th or lower
$0 वॉल्यूम
24%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 versus the data points available for all other Julys on record.
Note: If July 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Recent developments show a developing El Niño event boosting baseline global temperatures alongside regional heatwaves across Europe and the US, keeping daily anomalies elevated but variable. July 1 saw notable European extremes, such as the Czech Republic's national record, while subsequent days featured shifting atmospheric patterns that moderated or redistributed heat. With all outcomes at equal 50% market-implied odds, trader sentiment reflects genuine uncertainty in distinguishing the precise ranking, driven by natural day-to-day fluctuations in global mean surface temperature from circulation patterns, land-sea contrasts, and reanalysis dataset margins (e.g., ERA5). Upcoming refined observational data from agencies like NOAA and Copernicus will clarify whether any of these days surpasses prior records set in 2023–2024.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 versus the data points available for all other Julys on record.
Note: If July 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If July 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
बाज़ार खुला: Jul 6, 2026, 2:45 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$1समाप्ति तिथि
31 जुल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jul 6, 2026, 2:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 versus the data points available for all other Julys on record.
Note: If July 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Recent developments show a developing El Niño event boosting baseline global temperatures alongside regional heatwaves across Europe and the US, keeping daily anomalies elevated but variable. July 1 saw notable European extremes, such as the Czech Republic's national record, while subsequent days featured shifting atmospheric patterns that moderated or redistributed heat. With all outcomes at equal 50% market-implied odds, trader sentiment reflects genuine uncertainty in distinguishing the precise ranking, driven by natural day-to-day fluctuations in global mean surface temperature from circulation patterns, land-sea contrasts, and reanalysis dataset margins (e.g., ERA5). Upcoming refined observational data from agencies like NOAA and Copernicus will clarify whether any of these days surpasses prior records set in 2023–2024.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 versus the data points available for all other Julys on record.
Note: If July 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If July 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
वॉल्यूम
$1समाप्ति तिथि
31 जुल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jul 6, 2026, 2:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent developments show a developing El Niño event boosting baseline global temperatures alongside regional heatwaves across Europe and the US, keeping daily anomalies elevated but variable. July 1 saw notable European extremes, such as the Czech Republic's national record, while subsequent days featured shifting atmospheric patterns that moderated or redistributed heat. With all outcomes at equal 50% market-implied odds, trader sentiment reflects genuine uncertainty in distinguishing the precise ranking, driven by natural day-to-day fluctuations in global mean surface temperature from circulation patterns, land-sea contrasts, and reanalysis dataset margins (e.g., ERA5). Upcoming refined observational data from agencies like NOAA and Copernicus will clarify whether any of these days surpasses prior records set in 2023–2024.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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