Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a May 2026 global surface temperature anomaly of 1.10–1.19ºC versus the NOAA 1901–2000 baseline, with the 1.10–1.14ºC bin leading at 41% amid tight competition from 1.15–1.19ºC at 33.5%. This positioning stems from April's joint third-warmest status at 1.43ºC above pre-industrial levels per Copernicus ERA5—reflecting persistent record sea surface temperatures—and NOAA's April 9 update forecasting a 61% chance of El Niño emergence in May–July, which could amplify anomalies through enhanced Pacific heat release. Differentiating factors include El Niño onset timing, with delayed development favoring the lower bin via lingering neutral conditions, versus rapid intensification pushing toward higher ranges; early May observational data through mid-month adds uncertainty ahead of NOAA's June release. Model ensembles like ECMWF seasonal forecasts highlight this variability against historical May averages near 0.7ºC during transitions.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाMay 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.10–1.14ºC 41%
1.15–1.19ºC 34%
<1.10ºC 12%
1.20–1.24ºC 11%
$27,591 वॉल्यूम
$27,591 वॉल्यूम
10 जून, 2026
<1.10ºC
12%
1.10–1.14ºC
41%
1.15–1.19ºC
34%
1.20–1.24ºC
11%
1.25–1.29ºC
4%
>1.29ºC
2%
1.10–1.14ºC 41%
1.15–1.19ºC 34%
<1.10ºC 12%
1.20–1.24ºC 11%
$27,591 वॉल्यूम
$27,591 वॉल्यूम
10 जून, 2026
<1.10ºC
$12,321 वॉल्यूम
12%
1.10–1.14ºC
$1,718 वॉल्यूम
41%
1.15–1.19ºC
$2,604 वॉल्यूम
34%
1.20–1.24ºC
$2,143 वॉल्यूम
11%
1.25–1.29ºC
$3,263 वॉल्यूम
4%
>1.29ºC
$5,542 वॉल्यूम
2%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a May 2026 global surface temperature anomaly of 1.10–1.19ºC versus the NOAA 1901–2000 baseline, with the 1.10–1.14ºC bin leading at 41% amid tight competition from 1.15–1.19ºC at 33.5%. This positioning stems from April's joint third-warmest status at 1.43ºC above pre-industrial levels per Copernicus ERA5—reflecting persistent record sea surface temperatures—and NOAA's April 9 update forecasting a 61% chance of El Niño emergence in May–July, which could amplify anomalies through enhanced Pacific heat release. Differentiating factors include El Niño onset timing, with delayed development favoring the lower bin via lingering neutral conditions, versus rapid intensification pushing toward higher ranges; early May observational data through mid-month adds uncertainty ahead of NOAA's June release. Model ensembles like ECMWF seasonal forecasts highlight this variability against historical May averages near 0.7ºC during transitions.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
बाज़ार खुला: Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$27,591समाप्ति तिथि
10 जून, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a May 2026 global surface temperature anomaly of 1.10–1.19ºC versus the NOAA 1901–2000 baseline, with the 1.10–1.14ºC bin leading at 41% amid tight competition from 1.15–1.19ºC at 33.5%. This positioning stems from April's joint third-warmest status at 1.43ºC above pre-industrial levels per Copernicus ERA5—reflecting persistent record sea surface temperatures—and NOAA's April 9 update forecasting a 61% chance of El Niño emergence in May–July, which could amplify anomalies through enhanced Pacific heat release. Differentiating factors include El Niño onset timing, with delayed development favoring the lower bin via lingering neutral conditions, versus rapid intensification pushing toward higher ranges; early May observational data through mid-month adds uncertainty ahead of NOAA's June release. Model ensembles like ECMWF seasonal forecasts highlight this variability against historical May averages near 0.7ºC during transitions.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
वॉल्यूम
$27,591समाप्ति तिथि
10 जून, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a May 2026 global surface temperature anomaly of 1.10–1.19ºC versus the NOAA 1901–2000 baseline, with the 1.10–1.14ºC bin leading at 41% amid tight competition from 1.15–1.19ºC at 33.5%. This positioning stems from April's joint third-warmest status at 1.43ºC above pre-industrial levels per Copernicus ERA5—reflecting persistent record sea surface temperatures—and NOAA's April 9 update forecasting a 61% chance of El Niño emergence in May–July, which could amplify anomalies through enhanced Pacific heat release. Differentiating factors include El Niño onset timing, with delayed development favoring the lower bin via lingering neutral conditions, versus rapid intensification pushing toward higher ranges; early May observational data through mid-month adds uncertainty ahead of NOAA's June release. Model ensembles like ECMWF seasonal forecasts highlight this variability against historical May averages near 0.7ºC during transitions.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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