Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters around 29–31°C for Wuhan's highest temperature on May 16, reflecting tight forecast model agreement amid seasonal late-spring warming in central China, where May climatological highs average 26–28°C but recent days peaked at 28–31°C under persistent high humidity near 80% and cloud cover. Latest guidance from global ensembles like ECMWF and GFS, alongside local China Meteorological Administration projections, shows overcast conditions with possible late showers capping peaks, though brief afternoon cloud breaks could enable 31°C via enhanced insolation. Differentiating factors include convective activity timing—earlier showers favor 29°C, later ones 30–31°C—and southerly winds delivering moisture that tempers adiabatic heating. CMA's evening update today may clarify before resolution via official Hankou station data.