A strong high-pressure ridge over northeastern Asia is steering warm, southerly air across the Korean Peninsula today, producing clear skies and subsidence that favor daytime highs near the seasonal norm of 22 °C yet slightly above recent model runs. Korea Meteorological Administration guidance and ensemble consensus place Seoul’s maximum at 24–25 °C, with limited potential for brief urban-heat spikes or minor timing shifts that could nudge the reading either side of 25 °C. This meteorological setup underpins the 60.5 % market-implied probability for exactly 25 °C, while the 21 % chance assigned to 24 °C reflects residual uncertainty from localized cooling near the Han River or slight model adjustments expected before official close-of-day verification.