Current forecasts from Taiwan’s Central Weather Administration point to a daytime maximum near 28–29°C at Songshan Airport as the primary driver behind the tightly clustered market odds. A strengthening subtropical high-pressure ridge is promoting gradual warming, yet lingering moisture from the early Meiyu front is expected to limit peak insolation and keep the high from exceeding 30°C. Ensemble model spreads remain modest, with differences in afternoon cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing explaining why 28°C, 29°C, and 30°C outcomes trade within a few percentage points of each other. Historical mid-May climatology shows similar 27–30°C variability under comparable synoptic patterns, reinforcing trader focus on the final hourly observations to resolve the bracket.