Current forecast models from KNMI and ECMWF point to a maximum temperature near 14°C in Amsterdam on May 17, driven by persistent cool maritime air and moderate northwest winds that limit daytime heating. Widespread cloud cover and scattered showers are expected to suppress solar radiation, keeping readings well below the May climatological average of 16–18°C. Ensemble runs show tight agreement on limited afternoon clearing, with early observations confirming morning temperatures in the 6–9°C range. Minor model spread around sunshine duration supports the tight clustering around 13–15°C outcomes, while any unexpected breaks in cloud could allow brief spikes toward the upper end of that range. Hourly updates from Schiphol and revised afternoon guidance will clarify whether the peak stays capped or edges higher before resolution.