Current Korea Meteorological Administration model runs and ensemble guidance indicate a stable high-pressure ridge over the Korean Peninsula through May 20, supporting overnight radiative cooling that is moderated by warmer-than-average boundary-layer air and light southerly flow. This setup keeps Seoul’s projected minimum centered in the 15–17 °C range, aligning with the market’s clustering around those outcomes and the elevated 40.5 % probability assigned to 22 °C or higher if the ridge strengthens further. Mid-May climatology places the historical median low near 14 °C, so the current forecast represents a modest positive anomaly driven by reduced cold-air advection from the northwest. Updated 48-hour model cycles and any shifts in upper-level heights ahead of the weekend will be the next key inputs that could tighten or widen the probability distribution across the 14–17 °C buckets.