National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble guidance from the GFS and ECMWF point to a high in the mid- to upper 70s for Denver on May 16 as an upper-level low deepens over the Great Basin, advecting cooler air behind a recent ridge and introducing a chance of afternoon showers that could limit peak heating. This setup explains the market's concentration around 78-79°F (42% implied probability) while allowing for variance into the 76-81°F bins, well above the May climatological normal of 71°F but below the record highs seen earlier in the month. Light south-southeast winds and mostly sunny morning conditions should support efficient surface warming from overnight lows near 50°F, though any earlier or heavier precipitation would cap temperatures closer to 75°F. Final resolution hinges on the official reading at Denver International Airport, with model updates overnight and morning observations likely to tighten the range ahead of settlement.