Recent forecast models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System converge on a daytime maximum near 21–22°C for Milan on May 16, under partly cloudy skies and light northerly flow. This positioning explains the market’s 40.5% implied probability on 21°C and 23.5% on 22°C, as traders weigh modest diurnal heating against scattered shower risk that could cap the peak. Mid-May climatological averages for the Lombardy plain sit around 22°C, providing a baseline that reinforces these outcomes over cooler or warmer extremes. With the resolution window closing this evening, any late-afternoon clearing or additional cloud build-up remains the key variable that could shift final observations from official stations.