The death of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in late February 2026 has shifted the @khamenei_ir account toward primarily archival or commemorative releases rather than new statements, keeping weekly output low. This produces the tight market split, with traders assigning 47.5% implied probability to 5-9 posts and 44.5% to under 5 for the May 15-22 window. Recent activity shows sporadic reposts of older material on topics such as family policy and resistance themes, without major diplomatic summits, military developments, or official announcements that would increase volume. The close pricing reflects uncertainty over the exact timing and number of scheduled releases in any given seven-day period, with separation likely to emerge only if a high-profile regional event or institutional statement prompts additional posts before May 22.