Lebanon’s next parliamentary elections, originally slated for 2026 under the existing sectarian proportional system, remain highly uncertain amid parliamentary mandate extensions and ongoing delays. Trader sentiment reflects extreme fragmentation, with Amal Movement holding a modest edge through its entrenched Shiite organizational networks, Speaker Nabih Berri’s institutional leverage, and alliances in southern districts, while Hezbollah faces constraints from post-conflict disarmament talks and state authority assertions. Lebanese Forces and other Christian and Sunni parties trail due to divided opposition coalitions, demographic shifts favoring Muslim voters, and competition from independents or change lists. Key differentiators include alliance-building capacity, diaspora turnout, and positioning on sovereignty versus resistance priorities; broader consolidation behind any single outcome would likely require major electoral law reforms, decisive shifts in southern security control, or unified opposition fronts ahead of any rescheduled vote.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयालेबनान संसदीय चुनाव विजेता
लेबनान संसदीय चुनाव विजेता
अमल मूवमेंट (अमल) 2.0%
लेबनानी फोर्सेज (एलएफ) <1%
फ्री पैट्रियॉटिक मूवमेंट (एफपीएम) <1%
तकद्दुम पार्टी <1%
$668,469 वॉल्यूम
$668,469 वॉल्यूम
अमल मूवमेंट (अमल)
2%
लेबनानी फोर्सेज (एलएफ)
<1%
फ्री पैट्रियॉटिक मूवमेंट (एफपीएम)
<1%
तकद्दुम पार्टी
<1%
लाना – सोशल डेमोक्रेटिक पार्टी (लाना)
<1%
वतनी गठबंधन (वतनी)
<1%
हिज़्बुल्लाह (हिज़्ब)
<1%
काताेब पार्टी (काताेब)
<1%
मरादा मूवमेंट (एमएम)
<1%
इस्लामी समूह (आईजी)
<1%
लेबनान में अरब समाजवादी बाथ पार्टी (बाथ)
<1%
खत्त अहमर
<1%
नेशनल डायलॉग पार्टी (एनडीपी)
<1%
प्रोग्रेसिव सोशलिस्ट पार्टी (पीएसपी)
<1%
इंडिपेंडेंस मूवमेंट (आईएम)
<1%
इस्लामिक चैरिटेबल प्रोजेक्ट्स एसोसिएशन (ICPA)
<1%
नेशनल लिबरल पार्टी (एनएलपी)
<1%
माडा पार्टी (माडा)
<1%
डिग्निटी मूवमेंट (डीएम)
<1%
ReLebanon
<1%
अर्मेनियाई क्रांतिकारी संघ (एआरएफ)
<1%
यूनियन पार्टी (यूपी)
<1%
पॉपुलर नासेरिस्ट ऑर्गनाइजेशन (PNO)
<1%
अमल मूवमेंट (अमल) 2.0%
लेबनानी फोर्सेज (एलएफ) <1%
फ्री पैट्रियॉटिक मूवमेंट (एफपीएम) <1%
तकद्दुम पार्टी <1%
$668,469 वॉल्यूम
$668,469 वॉल्यूम
अमल मूवमेंट (अमल)
2%
लेबनानी फोर्सेज (एलएफ)
<1%
फ्री पैट्रियॉटिक मूवमेंट (एफपीएम)
<1%
तकद्दुम पार्टी
<1%
लाना – सोशल डेमोक्रेटिक पार्टी (लाना)
<1%
वतनी गठबंधन (वतनी)
<1%
हिज़्बुल्लाह (हिज़्ब)
<1%
काताेब पार्टी (काताेब)
<1%
मरादा मूवमेंट (एमएम)
<1%
इस्लामी समूह (आईजी)
<1%
लेबनान में अरब समाजवादी बाथ पार्टी (बाथ)
<1%
खत्त अहमर
<1%
नेशनल डायलॉग पार्टी (एनडीपी)
<1%
प्रोग्रेसिव सोशलिस्ट पार्टी (पीएसपी)
<1%
इंडिपेंडेंस मूवमेंट (आईएम)
<1%
इस्लामिक चैरिटेबल प्रोजेक्ट्स एसोसिएशन (ICPA)
<1%
नेशनल लिबरल पार्टी (एनएलपी)
<1%
माडा पार्टी (माडा)
<1%
डिग्निटी मूवमेंट (डीएम)
<1%
ReLebanon
<1%
अर्मेनियाई क्रांतिकारी संघ (एआरएफ)
<1%
यूनियन पार्टी (यूपी)
<1%
पॉपुलर नासेरिस्ट ऑर्गनाइजेशन (PNO)
<1%
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Lebanon’s next parliamentary elections, originally slated for 2026 under the existing sectarian proportional system, remain highly uncertain amid parliamentary mandate extensions and ongoing delays. Trader sentiment reflects extreme fragmentation, with Amal Movement holding a modest edge through its entrenched Shiite organizational networks, Speaker Nabih Berri’s institutional leverage, and alliances in southern districts, while Hezbollah faces constraints from post-conflict disarmament talks and state authority assertions. Lebanese Forces and other Christian and Sunni parties trail due to divided opposition coalitions, demographic shifts favoring Muslim voters, and competition from independents or change lists. Key differentiators include alliance-building capacity, diaspora turnout, and positioning on sovereignty versus resistance priorities; broader consolidation behind any single outcome would likely require major electoral law reforms, decisive shifts in southern security control, or unified opposition fronts ahead of any rescheduled vote.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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