Lisa Demuth holds a commanding lead in the Minnesota Republican gubernatorial primary at 67% trader consensus, driven by her February 2026 precinct caucus straw poll victory with roughly 32% support and her position as House Speaker, which has translated into stronger fundraising and institutional backing. The recent suspension of Kristin Robbins’ campaign narrowed the field to a clearer three-way contest among Demuth, Kendall Qualls, and Mike Lindell ahead of the May 29 GOP endorsing convention. Qualls and Lindell trail at 14.5% and 13.5% respectively, reflecting earlier straw poll showings and base appeal that have not yet overtaken Demuth’s organizational edge, while the remaining candidates stay under 2% amid a fragmented field heading into the August 11 primary.