Traders see a 99% likelihood that Pete Hegseth will remain Secretary of Defense through May 31, driven by the absence of any White House statements, congressional pressure, or internal administration signals favoring a swift cabinet change. Hegseth has continued routine defense policy work since confirmation with no major controversies or performance issues surfacing in the past month. The brief window before the deadline reduces the chance for sudden developments to unfold. While the president can remove cabinet secretaries at any time, such moves historically follow sustained reviews or public disputes rather than occurring without warning. Late-breaking factors like a significant scandal, health event, or policy dispute could still shift outcomes before the end of May.