Recent inflation data has bolstered the market-implied odds for an overheating U.S. economy by year-end 2026, with the April CPI rising 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—driven by a 17.9% surge in energy prices amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. Unemployment remains anchored near 4.3%, below the 5.0% threshold, sustaining trader consensus around combined low joblessness and elevated price growth at 55.0% implied probability. This positioning reflects resilience in the labor market despite cooling April payroll gains of just 115,000, while forward-looking forecasts anticipate modest unemployment increases to 4.6–4.9% alongside potential inflation moderation toward 2.8%. Upcoming CPI releases and FOMC communications on monetary policy will likely influence whether these dynamics shift toward a soft landing outcome currently priced at 40.5%.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाOverheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) 62%
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) 41%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) 22%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) 14.0%
नया
नया
31 जन, 2027
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
62%
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
41%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
17%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
10%
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) 62%
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) 41%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) 22%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) 14.0%
नया
नया
31 जन, 2027
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
$439 वॉल्यूम
62%
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
$1,681 वॉल्यूम
41%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
$635 वॉल्यूम
17%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
$700 वॉल्यूम
10%
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.Recent inflation data has bolstered the market-implied odds for an overheating U.S. economy by year-end 2026, with the April CPI rising 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—driven by a 17.9% surge in energy prices amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. Unemployment remains anchored near 4.3%, below the 5.0% threshold, sustaining trader consensus around combined low joblessness and elevated price growth at 55.0% implied probability. This positioning reflects resilience in the labor market despite cooling April payroll gains of just 115,000, while forward-looking forecasts anticipate modest unemployment increases to 4.6–4.9% alongside potential inflation moderation toward 2.8%. Upcoming CPI releases and FOMC communications on monetary policy will likely influence whether these dynamics shift toward a soft landing outcome currently priced at 40.5%.
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
बाज़ार खुला: Apr 24, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$3,455समाप्ति तिथि
31 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Apr 24, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.Recent inflation data has bolstered the market-implied odds for an overheating U.S. economy by year-end 2026, with the April CPI rising 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—driven by a 17.9% surge in energy prices amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. Unemployment remains anchored near 4.3%, below the 5.0% threshold, sustaining trader consensus around combined low joblessness and elevated price growth at 55.0% implied probability. This positioning reflects resilience in the labor market despite cooling April payroll gains of just 115,000, while forward-looking forecasts anticipate modest unemployment increases to 4.6–4.9% alongside potential inflation moderation toward 2.8%. Upcoming CPI releases and FOMC communications on monetary policy will likely influence whether these dynamics shift toward a soft landing outcome currently priced at 40.5%.
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
वॉल्यूम
$3,455समाप्ति तिथि
31 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Apr 24, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent inflation data has bolstered the market-implied odds for an overheating U.S. economy by year-end 2026, with the April CPI rising 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—driven by a 17.9% surge in energy prices amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. Unemployment remains anchored near 4.3%, below the 5.0% threshold, sustaining trader consensus around combined low joblessness and elevated price growth at 55.0% implied probability. This positioning reflects resilience in the labor market despite cooling April payroll gains of just 115,000, while forward-looking forecasts anticipate modest unemployment increases to 4.6–4.9% alongside potential inflation moderation toward 2.8%. Upcoming CPI releases and FOMC communications on monetary policy will likely influence whether these dynamics shift toward a soft landing outcome currently priced at 40.5%.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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