Ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, which carries roughly one-fifth of global oil trade, continue to drive trader sentiment amid the U.S.-Iran conflict that escalated in late February 2026. The U.S. Navy has already conducted multiple transits, including guided-missile destroyers in early May under the “Project Freedom” initiative, while the UK has deployed a Royal Navy destroyer and France is repositioning its carrier strike group toward the region. These moves reflect efforts to counter Iran’s effective blockade, which has trapped approximately 1,500 vessels and throttled daily traffic by over 90 percent. Market-implied odds favor additional naval involvement from European and Asian partners before the May 31 deadline, as prolonged disruptions sustain elevated tanker rates, widen crude spreads, and heighten volatility in energy benchmarks such as Brent and WTI futures. Key upcoming catalysts include further multilateral coordination and potential regulatory responses that could ease or intensify supply risks through the narrow chokepoint.