Persistent restrictions on commercial vessel movements through the Strait of Hormuz, driven by Iranian oversight, toll requirements, and unresolved US-Iran tensions following the February 2026 conflict and April ceasefire, have kept daily transits at a fraction of the pre-disruption average of roughly 100-140 ships. Recent tracking data through early May show traffic averaging just 5-9 vessels per day, with some 24-hour periods recording zero or single-digit passages amid naval blockades, mine-clearing delays, and rerouting by major carriers. These conditions have led trader consensus to assign overwhelming probability to the 0-10 range for end-of-May averages, reflecting the absence of verifiable progress toward normalized operations in the critical maritime chokepoint. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments in the coming weeks remain the primary variables that could alter this positioning.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाAvg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of May?
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of May?
0-10 87%
10-20 6%
20-40 3.2%
60+ 2.9%
$316,513 वॉल्यूम
$316,513 वॉल्यूम
31 मई, 2026
0-10
87%
10-20
6%
20-40
3%
40-60
2%
60+
3%
0-10 87%
10-20 6%
20-40 3.2%
60+ 2.9%
$316,513 वॉल्यूम
$316,513 वॉल्यूम
31 मई, 2026
0-10
$170,627 वॉल्यूम
87%
10-20
$42,186 वॉल्यूम
6%
20-40
$33,580 वॉल्यूम
3%
40-60
$26,046 वॉल्यूम
2%
60+
$44,077 वॉल्यूम
3%
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for May 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Persistent restrictions on commercial vessel movements through the Strait of Hormuz, driven by Iranian oversight, toll requirements, and unresolved US-Iran tensions following the February 2026 conflict and April ceasefire, have kept daily transits at a fraction of the pre-disruption average of roughly 100-140 ships. Recent tracking data through early May show traffic averaging just 5-9 vessels per day, with some 24-hour periods recording zero or single-digit passages amid naval blockades, mine-clearing delays, and rerouting by major carriers. These conditions have led trader consensus to assign overwhelming probability to the 0-10 range for end-of-May averages, reflecting the absence of verifiable progress toward normalized operations in the critical maritime chokepoint. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments in the coming weeks remain the primary variables that could alter this positioning.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for May 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
बाज़ार खुला: Apr 30, 2026, 3:15 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$316,513समाप्ति तिथि
31 मई, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Apr 30, 2026, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for May 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Persistent restrictions on commercial vessel movements through the Strait of Hormuz, driven by Iranian oversight, toll requirements, and unresolved US-Iran tensions following the February 2026 conflict and April ceasefire, have kept daily transits at a fraction of the pre-disruption average of roughly 100-140 ships. Recent tracking data through early May show traffic averaging just 5-9 vessels per day, with some 24-hour periods recording zero or single-digit passages amid naval blockades, mine-clearing delays, and rerouting by major carriers. These conditions have led trader consensus to assign overwhelming probability to the 0-10 range for end-of-May averages, reflecting the absence of verifiable progress toward normalized operations in the critical maritime chokepoint. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments in the coming weeks remain the primary variables that could alter this positioning.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for May 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
वॉल्यूम
$316,513समाप्ति तिथि
31 मई, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Apr 30, 2026, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent restrictions on commercial vessel movements through the Strait of Hormuz, driven by Iranian oversight, toll requirements, and unresolved US-Iran tensions following the February 2026 conflict and April ceasefire, have kept daily transits at a fraction of the pre-disruption average of roughly 100-140 ships. Recent tracking data through early May show traffic averaging just 5-9 vessels per day, with some 24-hour periods recording zero or single-digit passages amid naval blockades, mine-clearing delays, and rerouting by major carriers. These conditions have led trader consensus to assign overwhelming probability to the 0-10 range for end-of-May averages, reflecting the absence of verifiable progress toward normalized operations in the critical maritime chokepoint. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments in the coming weeks remain the primary variables that could alter this positioning.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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