Geopolitical tensions from the Iran conflict and disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz have propelled crude oil prices above $100 per barrel, accounting for roughly half of U.S. retail gasoline costs and lifting the national average to around $4.50 per gallon for regular as of mid-May 2026. Tight global inventories, Middle East production cuts, and spring refinery maintenance have compounded supply tightness, while rising seasonal driving demand provides additional support. U.S. Energy Information Administration data project some moderation later in 2026 if flows normalize, but near-term volatility hinges on diplomatic developments that could reopen key shipping lanes or sustain elevated benchmarks like Brent. Traders monitor weekly inventory reports and any shifts in Federal Reserve policy signals for broader risk appetite impacts on energy markets.