Recent cabinet departures, including Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer, Attorney General Pam Bondi, and Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem earlier in 2026, have fueled speculation about further turnover. Reports of President Trump’s private frustrations with Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard over Iran policy differences and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick’s Epstein-related associations have positioned both as leading candidates in trader assessments. Senate confirmation timelines for replacements and White House emphasis on projecting stability ahead of midterms add pressure, while the sizable share assigned to no exit before 2027 reflects caution about rapid additional changes. These verified developments explain the current distribution of probabilities among listed officials.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाTulsi Gabbard 39%
None before 2027 26%
Howard Lutnick 15.0%
Scott Bessent 13.9%
$11,675 वॉल्यूम
$11,675 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
Tulsi Gabbard
39%
None before 2027
26%
Howard Lutnick
28%
Scott Bessent
14%
Marco Rubio
18%
Pete Hegseth
4%
Chris Wright
22%
Brooke Rollins
3%
John Ratcliffe
3%
J.D. Vance
2%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
2%
Russell T. Vought
2%
Scott Turner
1%
Mike Waltz
1%
Lee Zeldin
1%
Doug Burgum
1%
Doug Collins
1%
Linda McMahon
1%
Sean Duffy
<1%
Kelly Loeffler
<1%
Jamieson Greer
<1%
Susie Wiles
30%
Tulsi Gabbard 39%
None before 2027 26%
Howard Lutnick 15.0%
Scott Bessent 13.9%
$11,675 वॉल्यूम
$11,675 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
Tulsi Gabbard
$3,210 वॉल्यूम
39%
None before 2027
$223 वॉल्यूम
26%
Howard Lutnick
$2,009 वॉल्यूम
28%
Scott Bessent
$233 वॉल्यूम
14%
Marco Rubio
$294 वॉल्यूम
18%
Pete Hegseth
$628 वॉल्यूम
4%
Chris Wright
$390 वॉल्यूम
22%
Brooke Rollins
$218 वॉल्यूम
3%
John Ratcliffe
$259 वॉल्यूम
3%
J.D. Vance
$415 वॉल्यूम
2%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$333 वॉल्यूम
2%
Russell T. Vought
$268 वॉल्यूम
2%
Scott Turner
$352 वॉल्यूम
1%
Mike Waltz
$270 वॉल्यूम
1%
Lee Zeldin
$294 वॉल्यूम
1%
Doug Burgum
$281 वॉल्यूम
1%
Doug Collins
$318 वॉल्यूम
1%
Linda McMahon
$321 वॉल्यूम
1%
Sean Duffy
$325 वॉल्यूम
<1%
Kelly Loeffler
$475 वॉल्यूम
<1%
Jamieson Greer
$233 वॉल्यूम
<1%
Susie Wiles
$326 वॉल्यूम
30%
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Recent cabinet departures, including Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer, Attorney General Pam Bondi, and Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem earlier in 2026, have fueled speculation about further turnover. Reports of President Trump’s private frustrations with Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard over Iran policy differences and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick’s Epstein-related associations have positioned both as leading candidates in trader assessments. Senate confirmation timelines for replacements and White House emphasis on projecting stability ahead of midterms add pressure, while the sizable share assigned to no exit before 2027 reflects caution about rapid additional changes. These verified developments explain the current distribution of probabilities among listed officials.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
बाज़ार खुला: Apr 20, 2026, 8:13 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$11,675समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Apr 20, 2026, 8:13 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Recent cabinet departures, including Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer, Attorney General Pam Bondi, and Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem earlier in 2026, have fueled speculation about further turnover. Reports of President Trump’s private frustrations with Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard over Iran policy differences and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick’s Epstein-related associations have positioned both as leading candidates in trader assessments. Senate confirmation timelines for replacements and White House emphasis on projecting stability ahead of midterms add pressure, while the sizable share assigned to no exit before 2027 reflects caution about rapid additional changes. These verified developments explain the current distribution of probabilities among listed officials.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
वॉल्यूम
$11,675समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Apr 20, 2026, 8:13 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent cabinet departures, including Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer, Attorney General Pam Bondi, and Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem earlier in 2026, have fueled speculation about further turnover. Reports of President Trump’s private frustrations with Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard over Iran policy differences and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick’s Epstein-related associations have positioned both as leading candidates in trader assessments. Senate confirmation timelines for replacements and White House emphasis on projecting stability ahead of midterms add pressure, while the sizable share assigned to no exit before 2027 reflects caution about rapid additional changes. These verified developments explain the current distribution of probabilities among listed officials.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
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