Recent polling consistently places the leading candidate, Iván Cepeda of the Historic Pact, at 35–39 percent, with Abelardo de la Espriella and Paloma Valencia trailing in the low-to-mid 20s, well short of the absolute majority required for an outright first-round victory on May 31. Multiple candidate withdrawals and endorsements, including those from Clara López and Luis Gilberto Murillo, have consolidated support behind Cepeda but have not produced the surge needed to approach 50 percent. Colombia’s multi-candidate landscape and historical pattern—in which only Álvaro Uribe secured more than half the vote in the opening round—continue to shape trader assessments. With the runoff scheduled for June 21 if no one clears the threshold, market pricing reflects the low likelihood of any candidate meeting the constitutional requirement in the initial vote.