Trader consensus reflects a 92.5% implied probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by year-end, driven by de-escalatory diplomacy at the ongoing Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, where China warns against US arms sales and Taiwan independence but prioritizes talks amid Iran war economic strains from elevated oil prices. No major PLA military buildup has occurred in the past 30 days; instead, gray-zone tactics persist, including warships near Penghu islands on April 27 and prior airspace denials pressuring President Lai's Eswatini trip. Taiwan's Han Kuang exercises enhance deterrence, while April's Xi-KMT meeting signals cross-strait dialogue potential. Late escalations like halted arms deliveries or sudden mobilization could shift odds, but current stability dominates trader assessments.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाक्या चीन 2026 के अंत तक ताइवान पर आक्रमण करेगा?
क्या चीन 2026 के अंत तक ताइवान पर आक्रमण करेगा?
हाँ
$23,356,221 वॉल्यूम
$23,356,221 वॉल्यूम
हाँ
$23,356,221 वॉल्यूम
$23,356,221 वॉल्यूम
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
बाज़ार खुला: Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET
रिज़ॉल्वर
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
रिज़ॉल्वर
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Trader consensus reflects a 92.5% implied probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by year-end, driven by de-escalatory diplomacy at the ongoing Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, where China warns against US arms sales and Taiwan independence but prioritizes talks amid Iran war economic strains from elevated oil prices. No major PLA military buildup has occurred in the past 30 days; instead, gray-zone tactics persist, including warships near Penghu islands on April 27 and prior airspace denials pressuring President Lai's Eswatini trip. Taiwan's Han Kuang exercises enhance deterrence, while April's Xi-KMT meeting signals cross-strait dialogue potential. Late escalations like halted arms deliveries or sudden mobilization could shift odds, but current stability dominates trader assessments.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
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