The recent trilateral Arctic security agreement signed in September 2026 and ratified by Greenland’s parliament in early November provides the dominant driver behind the 98.7 percent trader consensus against U.S. acquisition before 2027. The deal expands American military basing rights, including at two new sites and the existing Pituffik facility, while explicitly preserving Danish sovereignty and Greenland’s right to self-determination. No purchase, territorial transfer, or change in legal title has occurred despite earlier diplomatic pressure and public statements. With only weeks remaining in 2026 and Danish parliamentary approval still pending, structural barriers including Greenlandic opposition and the absence of any active negotiation for outright ownership keep the probability of acquisition extremely low. Late developments such as an unexpected bilateral sale or independence referendum followed by rapid U.S. accession remain theoretically possible but face steep procedural and political hurdles.