Ongoing US-mediated negotiations between Israel and Lebanon, launched in April 2026 following renewed border clashes with Hezbollah remnants, center on a potential ceasefire, Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, and Lebanese state control under UN Resolution 1701, with Hezbollah disarmament as a core Israeli demand. President Joseph Aoun, elected in January 2025, has publicly conditioned any direct contact with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on prior agreement and an end to Israeli operations, while expressing openness to talks through lower-level channels or third parties. Netanyahu has signaled willingness for a durable arrangement but maintains security requirements including a buffer zone. Recent rounds in Washington have produced incremental progress reports without leader-level engagement, and scheduled diplomatic follow-ups plus any escalation or de-escalation signals could shift the implied probability reflected in trader pricing.