Trump's proposal to distribute tariff revenues as direct $2,000 payments to middle- and lower-income households lacks any formal executive action or congressional legislation as of mid-May 2026. A February Supreme Court ruling invalidated key tariff authorities under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, directing U.S. Customs and Border Protection to issue over $175 billion in refunds to importers rather than funding household dividends. A May 9 Court of International Trade decision further blocked 10% global tariffs, reducing available revenue and diverting collections away from new programs. Fiscal conservatives in Congress have signaled opposition to direct payments without offsetting cuts, while the remaining six weeks before the June 30 resolution deadline offer insufficient time for bill passage, committee review, or implementation. Traders price these procedural and legal barriers as the dominant factors behind the 92% implied probability of no creation by the cutoff.